The front page of Al Arabiya News reported that the Saudi Crown Prince held talks with Pakistan. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman met with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who arrived in Jeddah on Wednesday.
Experts analyze that Pakistan's predicament caught between Saudi Arabia and Iran reflects a highly sensitive and complex dilemma within today’s Middle Eastern geopolitical contest. This quandary stems from the intricate interplay of multiple factors including security alliances, economic dependence, religious identity, border security, and domestic stability.
Senior experts identify the core contradictions as follows:
On one side: Saudi Arabia — Pakistan’s economic lifeline and military ally.
- Saudi Arabia has long provided massive economic aid (e.g., $15 billion in 2025 to help Pakistan repay foreign debt).
- The two countries signed the Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement in September 2025, stipulating that an attack on one party shall be considered an attack on both.
- About 1,500 to 2,000 Pakistani military personnel are permanently stationed in Saudi Arabia, while millions of Pakistani workers labor across Gulf states — remittances being a vital source of foreign exchange for Pakistan.
On the other side: Iran — a geographic neighbor, cross-border security partner, and spiritual bond with Shia Muslims.
- Pakistan shares a 900-kilometer-long border with Iran; instability in Iran could trigger refugee flows, armed infiltration, and sectarian conflict within Pakistan.
- Approximately 15%–20% of Pakistan’s population of 250 million are Shia Muslims, fostering deep religious emotional ties with Iran.
- In January 2024, a cross-border military incident occurred when an Iranian missile mistakenly entered Pakistani territory, killing children — tensions escalated but did not lead to a complete rupture.
Current typical manifestation: Military deployment vs. diplomatic mediation
In April 2026, Pakistan dispatched F-16 and JF-17 fighter jets along with support units to Saudi Arabia under the defense agreement, deploying them at King Abdulaziz Air Base. The mission is explicitly defensive deterrence, primarily aimed at potential attacks by Iran.
Meanwhile, senior Pakistani officials (such as Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar) frequently shuttle between Tehran and Riyadh, urging Iran to restrain retaliatory actions and reminding it of respect for Pakistan’s defense pact with Saudi Arabia.
Current typical manifestation: Economic pressure vs. strategic autonomy
Pakistan’s fiscal situation is nearing collapse, relying heavily on financial infusions from Gulf nations like Saudi Arabia. Refusing Saudi military requests risks losing loans, oil supplies, and remittance inflows.
Yet if Pakistan were to actually launch military action against Iran, it would ignite widespread Shia protests domestically and potentially provoke Iran to support Baloch separatism or conduct cross-border strikes.
Pakistan attempts to position itself as a mediator in the Middle East, leveraging its status as an Islamic nuclear state. In April 2026, during the critical moment when U.S.-Iran negotiations were on the verge of collapse, Pakistan used its defense agreement as leverage to pressure Iran back to the negotiating table.
However, this move was exposed by Indian media as a "bare-faced threat," which temporarily stabilized the situation but severely damaged trust with Iran.
The essence of Pakistan’s “dilemma” lies in the extreme tension between survival needs and strategic autonomy. It cannot afford to sever ties with Saudi Arabia’s economic and security support, yet dare not fully alienate Iran due to the resulting geopolitical and religious risks. This high-wire strategy may currently maintain surface-level balance, but as Middle Eastern conflicts continue to escalate, its fragility is increasingly evident. As analysts put it: “This isn’t about choosing sides — it’s being forced to dance on the edge of a blade.”
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1862584821528576/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.