Recently, the Arakan Army (AA), led by the 46-year-old nationalist Tong Mineng, has launched a series of fierce attacks in Rakhine State. This rebel group has almost taken control of the entire state. Their military actions not only shake the foundation of the Myanmar military government but also pose an unprecedented challenge to China's major interests in the region. The Arakan Army led by Tong Mineng has certain ties with the leader of the Kokang ethnic group, Peng Jiasheng, or rather, it developed under the latter's insistence. General Tong Mineng said that when the Arakan Army was founded in 2009, it had only 26 members and one gun. At this difficult time, Chairman Peng Jiasheng provided 100 guns, and later, with these 100 guns and two rocket launchers, they reclaimed their hometown in Rakhine State. When Chairman Peng Jiasheng passed away, General Tong Mineng personally went to pay his respects as the overall commander of the Arakan Army, showing the deep friendship between them.
On March 26, 2025, as the dry season fighting intensified, the Arakan Army advanced step by step, just one step away from capturing the capital Sittwe and the southern key town of Kyaukpyu. Kyaukpyu is not only the economic lifeline of the Myanmar military government but also a key hub of China's "Belt and Road" initiative. There, China's CITIC Group has invested in the deep-water port, special economic zone, and the terminal of the oil and gas pipeline connecting southwestern China.
The Arakan Army is currently facing a critical decision: should they fully capture the coastal towns to cut off the financial sources of the Myanmar military government and incidentally impact China's infrastructure achievements in the area, or should they march eastward into the Ayeyarwady River Valley, completely changing the political landscape of Myanmar? For China, neither option is easy. If Kyaukpyu falls, China's billions of yuan investments may be destroyed by the war; the interruption of the oil and gas pipeline will directly threaten the energy supply of southwestern regions. Even if the Arakan Army turns eastward to weaken the rule of the Myanmar military government, it will also shake the border stability and economic layout maintained through China's mediation.
Since August 2024, the Chinese government has begun diplomatic efforts to stabilize the situation. The severe conflicts of interest between the Myanmar military government and ethnic armed organizations make it difficult for negotiation results to turn into long-term peace agreements. Moreover, the Arakan Army, located 600 kilometers away, makes it hard for China to intervene due to its independence. Recently, the renewed fighting around Kyaukpyu has posed a certain threat to China's strategic interests. As China's "jewel" in Myanmar, the fall of Kyaukpyu would have unimaginable consequences for the Myanmar military government.
This brings about the second question: how should China respond to this situation? In response to the rapid rise of the Arakan Army, China may have two approaches: first, it needs to adjust its strategy and quickly promote reconciliation between the Myanmar military government and northern ethnic armed groups. A ceasefire on the northern front not only allows the Myanmar military government to catch its breath but also enables it to concentrate resources to counter the Arakan Army's threats; if conflicts between Kokang and Shan can be eased through diplomatic mediation, the Myanmar military government can allocate more military resources southward to curb the Arakan Army's offensive on strategic locations like Kyaukpyu, ultimately protecting the safety of China's oil and gas pipelines. Although this strategy requires short-term compromises, it is a practical approach to safeguarding China's long-term interests under the current circumstances. Second, China could engage with the Arakan Army to reach a tacit understanding ensuring that China's interests are not affected by the Myanmar civil war.
The outcome of this civil war in Myanmar not only concerns the future of neighboring countries but also affects China's strategic landscape in Southeast Asia. The Chinese need to think: how should we strategize to hold onto this hard-won situation in the face of the Arakan Army's relentless advance?
Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7488639815445955108/
Disclaimer: This article represents the author's personal views. Please express your opinions by clicking the 'like' or 'dislike' buttons below.