[By Guancha.net columnist Mind Observer Institute]

From Washington politicians, Silicon Valley financiers to intelligence analysts and think tank scholars, the Mind Observer Institute has previously detailed through multiple features the key nodes of America's tech war against China, providing a "record" for the core figures involved.

As the fog surrounding this great commonality dissipates, it is time for deeper scrutiny.

A question that might be asked first is: Are the methods, tools, and resources of this technology control machine spontaneously combined from chaos?

The answer is likely no.

Looking back at Trump's first term, although the comprehensive stranglehold on Huawei had already begun and more radical ideas to curb China's technological progress were emerging, there was clearly no coordination between these agendas and their proponents. In fact, they were even in fierce contention with each other, leading insiders in Washington to complain:

"This doesn't feel like one coop of chickens but rather a mix of chickens from three different coops."

However, just three years after the "Huawei ban," the "October Storm" aimed at locking down China's advanced semiconductor development was already a fully coordinated raid between Washington and Silicon Valley. Since then, up until today, this machine has become increasingly smooth and efficient, with the MAGA shockwave failing to disrupt its precise meshing.

Little known is that behind this transformation from chaos to order, lies the careful manipulation of an invisible hand.

"The Great Network"

In October 2022, shortly after the release of new regulations on advanced chip and semiconductor equipment controls for China, former U.S. Deputy Commerce Secretary Alan Estevez attended a public event.

"Ash Carter was my personal friend, my mentor, and a great network within the national security system. In fact, without Ash, I might not be sitting here today talking about my work. It was he who persuaded me to take this job after Secretary Raimondo called me."

Ash Carter, former U.S. Defense Secretary, was then director of Harvard University’s Belfer Center. He passed away suddenly from a heart attack on October 24, 2022.

Ash Carter Photo: AP

Looking solely at his titles, few would realize what made him stand out among tens of former defense ministers, hundreds of former core team members of presidents, and thousands of major figures in front and behind the scenes of Washington. It is hard to understand how his influence could persist until now.

However, as Estevez exposed, looking back at how America's tech war against China evolved from inspiration to resource coordination, agenda promotion, and finally to the top strategic shift, almost all critical nodes and figures are deeply connected to Carter.

In 2014, the U.S. military initiated what was called the "third offset" strategy initiative, returning to focus on great power competition and hoping to widen the gap with rivals again through a new technological revolution.

Among the designers of this initiative, including Carter, they realized clearly that this time, defense spending could no longer be the main driver of innovation. Most technological innovations today come from the commercial sector—especially Silicon Valley. Therefore, the success or failure of the third offset strategy hinges on fostering a new fusion ecosystem between Silicon Valley's tech community and the U.S. military.

It was precisely in this year that Carter temporarily left the military, moved to Silicon Valley with his family, consulted for investment funds and tech companies, and also took up a visiting scholar position at Stanford University, starting to enter the Silicon Valley business world.

In 2015, he returned to Washington to take charge of the Department of Defense, soon breaking the nearly two-decade-long estrangement by visiting Silicon Valley in his capacity as defense secretary. Not long after, he created the so-called Defense Innovation Unit Experimental (DIU-X) to help the Pentagon establish roots in Silicon Valley.

In 2016, the ever-resourceful Carter founded the Defense Innovation Board (DIB), inviting luminaries like Eric Schmidt (Google), Jeff Bezos (Amazon), and Reid Hoffman (LinkedIn founder, PayPal mafia member) to join, setting up a dialogue platform between new and old elites on both coasts.

Eric Schmidt, one of the key partners discovered during that period, described Carter's networking prowess well:

"Until 2016, my memory of Washington was limited to two things: growing up in Arlington and testifying before Congress as Google CEO and Chairman. But that year, Ash Carter called me. He hoped I would serve the country with him... Fundamentally, Ash founded DIB and DIU-X initiatives to establish new partnerships between Washington and Silicon Valley. Not only did he rebuild trust, but he fundamentally transformed this relationship. Thanks to his outreach efforts and the willingness of partners he found, the days when technical engineers signed petitions opposing cooperation with the U.S. government are gone... During my six years of serving at his invitation, I proudly worked towards these two missions—helping the Pentagon and the broader U.S. government utilize technologies necessary for protecting national security, and encouraging companies in Silicon Valley and elsewhere to assist our government."

Rising to Prominence

It was within this seemingly still "makeshift" community that the inspiration for great power competition centered around artificial intelligence had already taken shape.

In 2018, the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence (NSCAI), led by Schmidt, was officially established, marking further ascension for this small group. The commission aims to provide policy advisory recommendations to the U.S. President and Congress, "promoting the development of artificial intelligence, machine learning, and related technologies to comprehensively meet U.S. national security and defense needs." Among its members, both Chairman Schmidt and Vice Chairman Robert Work are close friends of Carter, while key figures like Gilman Louis and Jason Matheny, whom the Mind Observer Institute previously "dissected," are also deeply connected to Carter.

For example, Matheny not only entrusted the Bell Center, which Carter led at the time, with conducting AI policy research, but also established a permanent think tank platform—the Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET), which hired several of Carter's assistants as analysts, becoming an important talent reservoir in this interpersonal network.

Before Biden's new administration took office in 2021, the overall strategy of the tech war against China had been polished and began to be integrated into official U.S. policies. Its core points were previewed by Carter's deputy, Eric Rosenbach.

Rosenbach proposed that for strategic technology fields such as artificial intelligence, 5G, and semiconductors, the U.S. must:

1. Control key supply networks and the flow of technical information;

2. Have the capability to "wage war by other means";

3. Revitalize domestic production and research;

4. Monopolize the definition rights for global standard-setting and value judgments.

On one side, Jack Sullivan, along with two CSET analysts, Tarun Chhabra and Saif Khan, began designing a new export control regulatory framework. Besides Sullivan, who was mentored by Carter, Chhabra also once served as Carter's secretary at the Department of Defense.

Sullivan and Kurt Campbell, the "Asia Policy Tsar" during the Biden era, both have deep connections with Carter.

On the other side, Gina Raimondo, then U.S. Secretary of Commerce, who took on the responsibilities of industrial and trade policies, frequently consulted with Carter after taking office and followed his advice closely. The placement of Estevez in a key position is clear evidence of this.

From technical intelligence analysts, specialized lawyers to mid-to-senior level bureaucrats, when the "correct formula" was put together, the "perfect storm" of October 2022 became inevitable.

From the perspective of American elites, calling Carter "a great network within the entire national security system" is indeed accurate.

Long-lasting "Legacy"

Even on the day he died, Carter was still tirelessly promoting his policy agenda. His longtime partner Graham Allison mentioned that Carter was preparing to attend a White House meeting on supply chain security in Washington that day.

This originator of America's tech stranglehold on China, though unable to see the more tumultuous events after 2022, has already seen his cultivated interest groups take root deeply in Washington and Silicon Valley.

Look at where his disciples have gone:

Eric Schmidt, who has grown from a "newcomer" in Washington to a super patron, has repaid his debts by placing a group of Carter's aides, led by Ylli Bajraktari, in the Special Competitive Studies Project (SCSP). SCSP has become one of the most influential AI policy incubators in Washington through hosting events like AI Expo and the Ash Carter Forum.

Gilman Louis, a Chinese-American elite with dual backgrounds in intelligence and technology, founded the American Frontiers Foundation under Carter and Schmidt's support. Recently, he has focused on building what is called the Indo-Pacific Regional Quad Investment Network. The foundation issued a statement after Carter's passing, emphasizing, "His death is a huge loss for our country and for all of us who were fortunate enough to have him as a teacher, mentor, and friend. We hope to carry forward his service spirit in the coming years."

Jason Matheny, with substantial funding from Silicon Valley patrons, has already taken the helm of the RAND Corporation presidency, the apex of Washington think tanks.

Nitin Chadda, who founded WESTEXEC, the Democratic Party's core rotation axis, is currently a hub for connecting new generation elites.

From Wendy Anderson, who lobbied for Palantir in Washington, to Jack Sullivan, who returned to the Belfer Center... Carter's protégés continue to shine brightly in their respective key positions.

As for the direct export of technology export controls to China—the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) of the U.S. Department of Commerce—the organization and processes built during the Biden era have smoothly weathered the MAGA hurricane when Trump returned to the White House. According to insider reports, after the "Department of Government Efficiency" (DOGE) intervened, the BIS only experienced symbolic layoffs (15 out of approximately 500 employees). This large-scale team, with representatives stationed in Chinese embassies and consulates, clearly aligns with the will of Washington's new elites and will continue to play its role in the next four years. The recent addition of 54 Chinese institutions to the BIS Entity List marks the end of a brief personnel upheaval period.

Carter's profound and lasting influence inadvertently echoes Henry Kissinger's reflections.

In "White House Years," Kissinger once mentioned that all the concepts he used in government were brought from his academic career—because during his tenure, he was too busy to generate new ideas. "Senior positions teach decision-making, not the substance of strategy. They consume intellectual capital; they do not create intellectual capital. Most senior officials enter the White House with their own perspectives and insights; they learn how to make decisions but not what kind of decisions to make."

Perhaps it is this increasingly common atmosphere in Washington that, invisibly, amplifies the influence of officials like Carter, who possess both deep academic backgrounds and masterful networking skills. The tech competition agenda he created, connecting the East and West Coasts and consolidating consensus from both sides, may continue to overshadow Washington for a very long time.

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Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7488610509516702243/

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