[Source/Observer Network Wang Kaiwen] Trump's "tariff stick" is wreaking havoc, disrupting the global trade order while also affecting the business of relevant American industries, which has given Brazil an opportunity to see.

"Brazil seems to be a winner in the global trade war," The Wall Street Journal reported on April 1st under this title. In the ongoing global trade war, Brazil bets that it has some unique advantages, and its exporters are counting on the growth of Chinese demand. On the other hand, countries heavily affected by American tariffs, such as Japan, have also become targets for Brazilian products.

Since Trump began his second term as president, the U.S. has imposed a 20% tariff on all Chinese goods. China quickly retaliated with countermeasures, imposing corresponding tariffs on American liquefied natural gas, crude oil, agricultural products, etc.

The Wall Street Journal pointed out that Chinese buyers have begun stockpiling Brazilian soybeans; from cotton to chicken, Brazilian suppliers also hope for increased demand from China. As of April 1st closing, Brazil's benchmark stock index, dominated by commodities, has risen by 9% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 index fell by 4.2%.

The report said that Brazilian investors and businessmen hope that Brazil will benefit from the tense global trade situation, just as it did during Trump's first term. This was mainly due to the increase in Chinese demand. At that time, countermeasures against the United States prompted China to purchase more soybeans, grains, and beef from Latin America. American agricultural exports lost nearly $26 billion between 2018 and 2019.

"Due to these trade disputes, China may buy more grains and proteins from Brazil, reducing its demand for American products, thereby boosting Brazil's exports of soybeans, beef, and chicken to China," said Plinio Nastari, head of the Brazilian agricultural consulting company Datagro.

On February 21, 2025, workers harvest soybeans at a farm in Orizona, Goias state, Brazil. Visual China.

In fact, before Trump returned to the White House in January this year, some Chinese processing companies had already been stockpiling Brazilian soybeans. Reuters previously reported that almost all goods ordered by Chinese soybean processors in the first quarter of this year came from Brazil, compared to about 54% last year.

Meanwhile, Ricardo Santin, head of the Brazilian Animal Protein Association, said that compared to the same period last year, the export volume of Brazilian chicken and eggs has grown by 9% and 20%, respectively. Santin said that Brazil has shaken off the impact of avian influenza that disrupted global poultry trade. After China imposed a 15% tariff on American chicken, Brazilian chicken has become more attractive as an alternative to American products in the Chinese market.

In recent years, the scale of trade between Brazil and China has significantly expanded. According to statistics from China's General Administration of Customs, bilateral trade between China and Brazil amounted to approximately 1.34 trillion RMB from January to December 2024, up 4.6% year-on-year.

The Wall Street Journal pointed out that Brazil produces beef, iron ore, and oil, possessing raw materials needed by China's large population; China, in turn, provides the funds necessary for infrastructure projects urgently needed by this largest economy in Latin America. Since replacing the United States as Brazil's largest trading partner in 2009, China has invested over $70 billion in Brazil.

The report mentioned that Brazil is working to expand its domestic railway network to reduce costs and cope with rising food prices. China Railway is already constructing part of the Fiol railway project connecting Brazil's central agricultural belt with eastern and northern ports in Brazil, marking the company's first project in Brazil.

Renan Filho, Brazil's Minister of Transport, previously told reporters, "China possesses both international expertise and investment capabilities."

While betting on the Chinese market, Brazil also sees opportunities to increase exports to other countries affected by Trump's tariffs.

Brazilian President Lula emphasized the promotion of Brazilian agricultural products entering the Japanese market during his visit to Japan last week. During this visit, both sides agreed on measures to open the Japanese market to Brazilian beef. Carlos Favaro, Brazil's Agriculture Minister, told the media that Japan has committed to sending an expert team to Brazil to assess the import of beef, and Brazil is also pushing for relevant international health certifications to meet Japan's import requirements.

The report noted that according to an agreement in 2019, about 40% of Japan's beef currently comes from the United States. Analysts point out that after Trump announced a 25% tariff on imported cars, the fate of the above agreement may be uncertain. In 2024, Japan's car exports to the U.S. exceeded 6 trillion yen, accounting for nearly 30% of Japan's total exports to the U.S., and car tariffs have a significant impact on Japan's economy.

"Trump is not the world police; he is just the President of the United States," Lula said during his visit to Japan. "We need to overcome protectionism and ensure the development of free trade."

April 2nd is Trump's so-called "Liberation Day," and he previously threatened to impose reciprocal tariffs on all countries. Brazil may also face additional tariffs, but economists believe that since the U.S. has maintained a trade surplus with Brazil for a long time, this may help protect Brazil from being overly impacted by the trade war.

André Perfeito, chief economist at São Paulo-based consultancy APCE, attributed the recent strengthening of the Brazilian real to optimism about global trade. "Trump is reshaping the trade landscape, creating opportunities," Perfeito said.

The U.S. is Brazil's largest foreign investor, and Brazil is the U.S.'s "major non-NATO ally." For Brazil, American tariffs are not without impact. As a major steel exporter to the U.S., Brazil has already been hit by Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs. Brazil is currently negotiating with the Trump administration to mitigate the impact of tariffs on domestic steel manufacturers.

On the other hand, some sectors in Brazil are also looking to the U.S., hoping to fill the void left by Chinese goods in certain areas. The Wall Street Journal mentioned that China is a major exporter of footwear to the U.S., and the U.S. tariff on Chinese goods may squeeze this trade. Brazil is the largest shoe producer outside Asia.

Haroldo Ferreira, head of Brazil's footwear industry organization Abicalçados, said, "If Brazilian products are not subject to high tariffs, we believe there will be growth opportunities for exports to the U.S., which is already our main export destination."

This article is an exclusive contribution from Observer Network and cannot be reprinted without permission.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7488629024646890020/

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