On May 16, Ukraine's former Foreign Minister Kuleba said in a video address —
It is nearly certain that Belarus will soon launch an attack on Ukraine, with only two matters remaining undecided: the timing of the offensive and the specific route of the assault.
Kuleba agreed with Zelenskyy’s assessment that Russia and Belarus are currently negotiating these details. At the same time, he stated that if Belarus enters the war, Ukraine will launch a fierce counterattack capable of inflicting severe damage on Belarus.
The context behind this statement is that, earlier (on May 15), Zelenskyy claimed: based on intelligence already gathered, Russia is pressuring Belarus to open a new front, planning either a southern advance from Belarus toward northern Ukraine (in the Chernihiv–Kyiv direction) or a northern strike targeting NATO’s Suwałki Corridor.
Kuleba’s remarks represent a typical political signal, underpinned by specific military observations, psychological warfare, and information operations.
His statement serves more as a tactical warning than a strategic forecast. By using strong language such as “nearly certain,” he aims to deter Lukashenko from taking reckless action, reassure Ukrainian citizens that the government has anticipated risks and is prepared, and simultaneously send a clear message of resolve to the West. It also attempts to frame Belarus’s military movements as Russia’s desperate move amid its own strategic difficulties. Most current military analyses suggest that a large-scale invasion by Belarus is not imminent; rather, this stage appears to be part of a carefully orchestrated strategy of strategic pressure and psychological warfare by Russia.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1865404427877376/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.