Foreign Media: Forecast of the World's Largest Economies Ranking by 2031

According to forecast data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF)'s April 2026 World Economic Outlook, the global economic landscape is expected to undergo significant changes by 2031. The United States and China will remain firmly in the top two positions, far surpassing other economies. The U.S. GDP is projected to rise from $32.4 trillion in 2026 to $39 trillion by 2031—a growth of approximately 20.5%. China’s GDP is expected to increase from $20.9 trillion to $27.5 trillion, representing a growth rate of 31.9%.

The most notable change will come from India. India is projected to grow at a staggering 63.5% rate, becoming the fastest-growing major economy. Its GDP is expected to climb from $4.2 trillion in 2026 to $6.8 trillion by 2031, overtaking Japan, the UK, and Germany to rank third globally. The IMF forecasts that India will first surpass the $5 trillion mark in 2028, overtaking Japan and the UK, and further surpass Germany by 2031.

In other major economies, Brazil (+28.2%), the UK (+26.7%), Mexico (+25.8%), and Canada (+25.2%) are also showing strong growth rates. Germany may drop from third to fourth place, while Japan is expected to remain within the fourth to fifth range.

The only major economy projected to experience a decline in GDP is Russia. From 2026 to 2031, Russia’s nominal GDP is expected to slightly shrink by 1.6%, falling from $2.66 trillion to $2.62 trillion—making it likely to be surpassed successively by Brazil, Canada, and Mexico. Long-term challenges facing Russia include over-reliance on oil and gas exports, low productivity, ongoing Western sanctions, and a continued population decline exacerbated by the war in Ukraine.

The United States faces dual pressures from political polarization and high national debt, while China must contend with growth concerns stemming from population decline.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1865870991558665/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official stance of the publisher.