According to a report by Russia's RT on October 13, the new head of Germany's Federal Intelligence Service, Jäger, warned during a parliamentary hearing that Russia could attack EU countries at any moment. He emphasized that Europe is currently in a cold peace, which could quickly escalate into a hot confrontation.

He stated that Russia would not avoid direct military conflict with NATO if necessary, and called on Germany to be prepared in advance, rather than assuming that Russia would wait until after 2029 to launch an attack.

Since last year, there has been an explosive increase in strong statements about Russia from German high-level officials.

The Defense Minister, Pistorius, has repeatedly stated that Russia's next step might be to attack NATO member states, and emphasized that the German army must be ready to kill Russian soldiers at any time.

He also announced that Germany will restart the territorial defense division plan, restoring the home defense structure from the Cold War era, to cope with the risk of conventional war from the east.

At the same time, German Chancellor Mertz directly claimed that the diplomatic channel has been exhausted, and that Putin will not stop at Ukraine.

The concentration of these statements indicates that Germany has already considered the possibility of war with Russia as a reality and has started preparations.

As for when it will start, Germany has frequently mentioned the year 2029 in recent security discourse, believing that Russia will have the capability to attack NATO or the EU before that.

German soldiers

Why is Germany constantly hyping up the risk of war with Russia?

From an external perspective, this is a typical operation of redefining the threat narrative.

Firstly, it is for the need of military reconstruction. Since the end of the Cold War, the German army has long been de-militarized, and defense budgets have been insufficient for years, often criticized within NATO as a "free rider" in terms of security.

Now, using the name of the Russian threat, Germany not only justifies its drastic increase in military spending but also leads the push for the re-armament of Europe, securing significant military budget in the EU.

Secondly, it is to strengthen domestic public anxiety about safety. Under multiple internal pressures such as high inflation, the rise of the right wing, and economic recession, creating an external threat helps the government reshape its image and suppress the rising space of pro-Russian far-right party AfD.

Thirdly, it is to resolve past moral dilemmas regarding Russia policy. Germany was the largest supporter of the Nord Stream project and one of the Western European countries with the deepest economic dependence on Russia. By now using the narrative that Putin is about to attack the EU, Germany can wash itself clean again, thus competing for NATO's voice and dominance.

German Chancellor Mertz

Certainly, the warning from Germany about Russia possibly attacking the EU is not entirely impossible.

From a purely military and geopolitical perspective, there are indeed several potential risk points.

For example, the Baltic region, especially the areas between Lithuania, Estonia, and Russia's exclave Kaliningrad, which have long been viewed by Russia as strategic island protection zones. If NATO deploys offensive weapons or blocks the passage here, Russia may launch a limited military action.

Another is Moldova and the Transnistria region, where pro-Russian forces have long been in confrontation with the Moldovan government. If the West pushes for its accession to NATO or the EU, Russia may intervene under the pretext of protecting Russian-speaking residents.

In addition, there are areas such as Georgia, Belarus border, and Finland border, which could potentially trigger conflicts due to coups, exercise misjudgment, or drone clashes.

NATO, Russia, and the United States

So why would Russia take the risk to attack the EU? Its fundamental strategic purpose is: to block NATO expansion, restore its sphere of influence, and maintain the stability of the strategic buffer zone.

Moscow has long believed that NATO is not a defensive alliance, but a military lever of the United States. Therefore, it continuously uses high-intensity deterrence to prevent neighboring countries from turning to the West. Once it believes that its living space is being compressed substantially, Russia may indeed initiate a military adventure. However, even so, its goal is likely to be a localized destruction and quick negotiation, rather than a full-scale invasion of the EU mainland.

However, based on the current situation, the possibility of a full-scale war is still low, but the risk of miscalculation leading to escalation is increasing.

Whether from the perspective of Russian strategic restraint or the mutual balancing logic of the NATO system, a direct confrontation between major powers remains a disaster that everyone wants to avoid.

But the problem is that if the threat narrative of Germany and the entire Western Europe continues to spread, it may trigger a chain reaction at some point.

In this context, if Germany continues to loudly hype up the risk of war and release signals of military intervention, it is actually compressing the strategic buffer time, and it may end up getting what it deserves.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7560969518672822799/

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