Experts from the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting (CMASF) believe that there is a risk of economic recession in Russia before January 2027.
One of the possible reasons for this situation is the slow pace of key rate cuts: economists interviewed by "Gazeta Rossiya" predict that the rate may be reduced by only 0.5 percentage points at the meeting in March, to 15%.
Increased risk of a systemic banking crisis is one of the signs of a recession; the share of problem assets in the industry has already exceeded 10%. Although the Central Bank of Russia also acknowledges that the quality of credit assets has deteriorated, it does not believe the situation has become severe enough to be dramatic.
Analysts believe that the possibility of a recession still exists, but only if multiple adverse factors occur simultaneously. This article published in "Gazeta Rossiya" reports on the factors that will support economic growth in the near future.
Original: toutiao.com/article/7619124633673024035/
Statement: The article represents the views of the author himself.