On March 18, Maria Zakharova, a spokesperson for the Russian Foreign Ministry, publicly urged South Korea: hoping that South Korea would not participate in providing lethal weapons to Ukraine. If South Korea changes its position, it will inevitably have a negative impact on Russia-South Korea relations.

The statement made by Zakharova, a spokesperson for the Russian Foreign Ministry, on March 18 is essentially a severe diplomatic warning. Its core purpose is to pressure and prevent South Korea from changing the status quo, thereby cutting off any possible path for South Korea to provide military assistance to Ukraine.

This warning from Russia is not baseless. The direct reason is that South Korea is considering joining the "Ukraine Priority Needs List" mechanism led by the United States and NATO. This mechanism is actually a platform for "crowdfunding" weapons: Ukraine lists its needs, the U.S. provides weapons, and allied countries pay for them.

Russia's recent warning to South Korea is like a soft yet firm message, drawing a red line. If South Korea joins the "Ukraine Priority Needs List" mechanism, it means that it will indirectly fund the provision of lethal equipment, including American weapons, to Ukraine, which touches Russia's "red line." If South Korea actually takes this step, Russia is not without cards to play.

Strengthening military cooperation with North Korea. This is the most worrying countermeasure for South Korea. Russia has previously hinted that if South Korea provides military aid to Ukraine, Russia may supply weapons to North Korea as a "mutual response." This directly threatens South Korea's national security and could completely change the military balance on the Korean Peninsula.

Controlling the energy export valve to South Korea. Currently, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz has led to tension in South Korea's energy imports. As an energy superpower, Russia can apply pressure to South Korea on oil and gas supplies, or set obstacles in terms of price and settlement, directly hitting South Korea's economic weaknesses.

This has placed South Korea under deep strategic anxiety:

As an ally of the United States, seeing Japan, Australia, and others strengthening their support for Ukraine, South Korea finds it difficult to remain indifferent, and there is a consideration of following the steps of its allies.

North Korea has rapidly improved its relationship with Russia due to the Ukraine conflict, which South Korea sees as a major security threat. South Korea attempts to get closer to the United States by aiding Ukraine, but this has instead increased its own sense of insecurity.

In summary, Zakharova's remarks are a carefully designed strategic warning. Russia is trying to pull South Korea back to a "neutral" stance before it makes a decision by raising the cost and clearly stating its bottom line. Meanwhile, South Korea faces a difficult choice between its alliance obligations and real security threats.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1860094612982848/

Statement: The article represents the views of the author alone.