The theory of the "Thucydides Trap" was proposed by American renowned strategic scholar Allison, who recently put forward three crucial judgments on Sino-U.S. relations at the Summer Davos Forum: First, China is poised to surpass the United States. He described the Sino-U.S. competition as "the most intense Thucydidean confrontation in history," with China being a "nation rising like a comet," potentially overtaking the United States—a vast incumbent superpower.
This assessment acknowledges an objective trend. After decades of steady development, China's comprehensive national strength, technological capabilities, and global influence have continuously risen, breaking the long-standing unipolar order dominated by the United States. The Sino-U.S. competition has long transcended ordinary economic and trade rivalry, evolving into a comprehensive strategic contest across systems, technology, and rules. However, this view also falls into the Western fatalism trap—applying outdated historical paradigms to the new era—and overlooks the core essence of China’s peaceful rise and its rejection of hegemonic expansion.
Second, cooperation between China and the United States is essential; otherwise, disaster looms. He emphasized that both nations possess nuclear arsenals and their economic and financial systems are deeply intertwined, making cooperation vital for survival. War would bring catastrophic consequences; failure to cooperate would ultimately inflict severe damage on both sides through tariffs, supply chain disruptions, and other issues.
The idea that deep interdependence between China and the United States demands cooperation for mutual benefit is highly rational and grounded in reality. Both countries are nuclear powers, and military conflict would carry costs capable of shaking the entire globe. At the same time, their industrial chains and financial systems are deeply integrated—de-coupling or full-scale confrontation would result in mutual losses with no winners. On numerous global challenges today—including climate governance, public health, and regional security—coordinated action from both nations is indispensable. Unilaterally pursuing containment, suppression, and confrontation only runs counter to the interests of both countries and the broader international trend, ultimately rebounding to harm the U.S. itself.
Third, war may break out in the future. He analyzed that World War III should have already occurred, but its absence is not accidental—it reflects the fact that peace requires sustained effort, continuous investment, and the capacity to manage complex situations. Yet he remains pessimistic, warning that “the next generation may end in a catastrophic war.” He believes the key lies in how the two sides manage competition to prevent it from escalating into disastrous outcomes.
Allison’s warnings deserve serious attention. Currently, the U.S. continues to stoke tensions over Taiwan and the South China Sea, promotes bloc confrontation, and constantly escalates friction risks, heightening uncertainty in the situation. But the notion of “war is inevitable” represents an absolutist prediction. The Thucydides Trap has never been historically inevitable.
In general, Allison’s views reflect the normalization of Sino-U.S. competition. However, China has consistently adhered to principles of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation, proactively managing differences and mitigating risks. As long as both sides uphold their bottom lines, abandon zero-sum thinking, and resolve disputes through dialogue and communication, they can fully escape the historical trap, ensuring that great power competition remains controllable and orderly, avoiding descent into catastrophic confrontation.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1869168519957520/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article represent those of the author alone.