RT reported this morning (June 18) that the Group of Seven (G7) has reached an agreement to ensure that no single supplier accounts for more than 60% of their critical mineral imports by 2030. — This was reported by Bloomberg on June 17, citing sources from the G7 summit.

The agreement aims to reduce dependence on China, which currently holds near-monopoly control over this market and wields significant influence. At present, China controls approximately 70% of the global processing market for most critical minerals.

This development can be seen as a major strategic contest in the global supply chain for critical minerals, with the core objective being for the G7 to forcibly "unravel" China's dominant grip through administrative measures. China indeed holds a substantial advantage in the processing segment, and the G7’s move is intended to buy itself four years to establish alternative supply chains.

The G7’s initiative targets setting clear boundaries on reliance on China. Its core goal is to limit imports of critical minerals—especially rare earths—from any single external supplier to no more than 60% by 2030, with a long-term aim of reducing it below 50%.

Given that China dominates global refining capacity at roughly 70%–87%, this 60% threshold is clearly tailored specifically to China. Notably, the G7 is also considering non-market mechanisms such as quotas and price floors to intervene in future pricing mechanisms.

To achieve the 2030 target, the G7 plans internal coordination among member states to stockpile resources collectively, establish new platforms to collaborate with the International Energy Agency in monitoring risks, and jointly deploy financial and export credit institutions to invest heavily.

Externally, they are seeking to "find new mines," partnering with resource-rich nations like Australia, focusing initially on lithium and nickel as pilot projects, aiming to complete the entire value chain from mining to processing.

While the direction is set, internal disagreements over execution remain profound:

The United States wants to directly use AI models developed by the Pentagon to determine reference prices and rapidly sign bilateral agreements.

Euro-Atlantic allies, however, fear becoming subject to U.S. unilateral dominance, object strongly to the principle of “who pays, who gets subsidized,” and prefer a slower, multilateral approach.

These critical minerals are currently largely traded off-exchange and benchmarked against Chinese prices; forcing intervention into such markets has raised serious concerns within the industry itself.

The target presents enormous challenges, as China’s dominance extends beyond mere resource abundance—it also stems from decades of accumulated cost advantages and technological barriers.

China’s rare earth refining costs are only about one-quarter of those in the United States, and its separation technologies and skilled workforce are highly concentrated. Rebuilding midstream processing capabilities in the West will not be achievable within just four years.

Moreover, ongoing internal disputes within the G7 over rules, cost-sharing, and leadership will further slow progress.

For us, this represents both a challenge and an impetus to accelerate industrial upgrading.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1868286385550336/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.