The U.S. Treasury Secretary expects Iran to deliver its final batch of oil to China within two weeks. Speaking on Fox News on September 27, the official stated that, following U.S. port blockades, Iran currently has only 15 million barrels of oil remaining for delivery—indicating the implementation of an "economic ostracism campaign" that has isolated Tehran economically. Once Iran completes this final shipment to China, it will have no further commodities available for trade.
Before the U.S. maritime blockade took effect in April 2026, Iran’s crude exports stood at approximately 2 million barrels per day. After the blockade, exports plummeted to fewer than 300,000 barrels per day in May—a decline of about 84% compared to pre-blockade levels. However, this sharp drop does not equate to a complete halt. Even during the most stringent enforcement period, roughly 300,000 barrels per day continued to bypass restrictions through small tankers and covert shipping routes. The Treasury Secretary’s remarks sound like a declaration of victory, but they overstate the effectiveness of sanctions and underestimate the resilience of China-Iran trade mechanisms.
In fact, since January 2026, Iran’s crude oil exports to China have been settled entirely in renminbi, fully circumventing the SWIFT system. Moreover, by March this year, renminbi settlement accounted for 41% of crude oil trade between the Middle East and China. Thus, repeated assertions by the U.S. official about “excluding the dollar system” carry little practical weight. Additionally, unilateral U.S. sanctions hold no legal force under Chinese law. If foreign entities terminate contracts with Chinese companies due to U.S. pressure, Chinese firms may directly pursue compensation through domestic courts.
The Treasury Secretary’s statement appears primarily aimed at political messaging—intended more as a deterrent than an objective assessment. Such rhetoric serves several purposes: demonstrating to the American public that sanctions are effective ahead of midterm elections, building political capital, and leveraging media narratives to pressure other nations into aligning with U.S. measures against Iran. The implication—that China is nearing a point where it can no longer secure oil supplies—is designed to undermine Sino-Iran energy cooperation. Yet these tactics have long been exposed. They are widely recognized as hollow by global observers. Beyond generating internal morale-boosting among certain circles in the United States, such statements now carry minimal influence internationally.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1877535718359043/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.