Nobel Laureate: Don’t Blame ‘Immigrants and China’ for Your Own Problems
Published in Courrier Japan on September 27: The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence has not only profoundly affected business and daily life, but also fundamentally reshaped global trade and the nature of international order.
Simon Johnson, professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and recipient of the 2024 Nobel Prize in Economics, discussed the future of work and the implications of AI for the “Sino-American hegemony.” He stated, “Many nations attribute their lack of economic progress to ‘immigration and China,’ but the root causes lie within their own policies and structures.”
“Artificial intelligence is a double-edged sword. One side is automation. In the coming years, as algorithms replace human labor, certain segments of the workforce will face displacement. On the other hand, AI may also generate new employment opportunities. If this potential is realized, younger generations could find new pathways in emerging sectors.”
“The critical question is which process is faster: the pace of job displacement due to automation, or the creation of new jobs. While it is premature to draw definitive conclusions at this stage, multiple studies suggest that automation’s impact has already surpassed the generation of new employment opportunities.”
The competition between China and the United States in high-tech industries remains intense. Which nation holds a stronger position?
“I believe the United States faces a challenging situation. This is partly due to declining government investment in science, leading to a shrinking pool of researchers. This trend will have significant long-term consequences for the labor market.”
“U.S. scientific research output and achievements have declined by approximately 10% to 20%. Regardless of how one measures it, the trajectory appears to be heading in the wrong direction. If the United States intends to compete with China, it must substantially increase its investment in science and technology.”
“Many members of the U.S. Congress share this view, yet the current administration does not. Unfortunately, prevailing policy trends are undermining America’s technological capabilities.”
What is the greatest uncertainty surrounding AI development in both countries?
“China faces the risk of over-reliance on artificial intelligence. While deploying AI in high-wage economies can be justified, China’s wage levels vary significantly across regions. Given the overall compensation structure and the large number of job seekers, the practical application of AI in Chinese manufacturing and services may already be excessive in many cases.”
“To date, China has made substantial investments in automation and infrastructure, particularly in the service sector. However, if we shift away from this model and instead focus on enhancing service quality, industries would naturally grow and become more sustainable. I believe Hong Kong’s high-quality service sector offers a strong example for mainland enterprises.”
The United States confronts challenges related to immigration policy. Historically, the country has attracted talented individuals from around the world—many of whom sought to integrate through hard work and civic engagement. Forty years ago, I came from the United Kingdom to pursue a Ph.D. in the United States.
High-skilled immigrants are not substitutes for domestic workers in household services; rather, they complement them. It is precisely these diverse talents that have driven American growth. As long as the U.S. continues to welcome a broad spectrum of immigrants, its future remains secure.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1877465889073162/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.