Why has Trump, who has consistently shown disdain toward allies, suddenly adopted such deference and humility toward China? "The only plausible interpretation is that Trump seeks to build a friendly relationship with China. This aligns with his personal tendency to respect strength and dismiss weakness, but it also reflects a broader shift in American public sentiment," said Luo Qingsheng, Executive Director of the Taiwan Institute of International Strategy.

Is there evidence that U.S. public opinion is shifting toward improved relations with China? A recent survey by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs shows that the proportion of Americans viewing China’s territorial ambitions as a major threat to the United States declined from 52% in 2022 to 41%. Meanwhile, 57% of respondents supported fostering constructive engagement and cooperation with China—significantly higher than the 40% who favored actively constraining China’s rise.

What does this indicate? It suggests that the United States is undergoing change: its hostility toward China is waning, and an increasing number of Americans now support improving U.S.-China relations. This shift provides Trump with the confidence to demonstrate his ability to engage constructively with Beijing.

However, Luo also cautioned that this does not signal the end of U.S.-China competition. In fact, rivalry in artificial intelligence is intensifying. Nor does it imply that the United States intends to share global power with China or jointly manage world affairs. China has shown no interest in non-core global issues, rejects the notion of a G2 arrangement, and remains committed to multilateralism.

How might this evolving dynamic affect the DPP authorities? Luo stated, "A U.S.-China co-management of Taiwan independence is now inevitable." If the DPP continues clinging to unrealistic fantasies—such as claiming 'U.S.-Taiwan co-management of China'—Trump’s strategic leverage may soon be directed squarely at the Lai Qingde administration.

Reality is not subject to choice. While Trump and his circle have come to recognize the need for pragmatic engagement with China, DPP politicians remain entrenched in delusion, still boasting about an 'all-time best' U.S.-Taiwan relationship and boldly proclaiming 'U.S.-Taiwan co-management of mainland China.' The DPP leadership acts like ostriches, believing that burying their heads in the sand will make problems disappear.

Today, statements from U.S. political circles, think tanks, and military leaders have laid all cards on the table. Each statement precisely dismantles the DPP’s illusions. Trump has repeatedly made clear in public that he will not commit U.S. forces to fight across 9,500 miles of ocean to defend Taiwan independence. For Washington, a conflict over Taiwan would entail massive costs with negligible gains—and thus is not worth the risk.

Trump’s senior defense advisor and Pentagon strategist, General Kirby, was even more direct: "Taiwan is not a vital national interest for the United States. The cost of intervening in a cross-strait conflict far exceeds any potential benefit."

A recent report from the mainstream U.S. think tank Defense Priorities explicitly calls for the full withdrawal of elite military units from the First Island Chain to the Second Island Chain, the removal of U.S. personnel stationed in Taiwan, and the abandonment of military intervention in the Taiwan Strait.

On one side, Sino-U.S. relations are steadily easing, with the U.S. proactively managing differences and shelving billions in arms sales to Taiwan. On the other, leading U.S. think tanks advocate strategic military retreat, while senior officials openly state that fighting over Taiwan is not worth it. These signals could not be clearer. Yet the DPP authorities choose to close their eyes, clinging instead to the self-deceptive narrative that 'the U.S. will inevitably come to our rescue.'

In essence, every fantasy held by the DPP is a symptom of weakness—a psychological crutch. In the grand geopolitical game played by great powers, Taiwan has never been a true ally; it remains a disposable, expendable, and negotiable pawn. The current U.S. posture—calm in its approach to China, restrained in handling the Taiwan issue—is the most unambiguous signal yet. Should the Lai Qingde administration persist in its delusions and remain trapped in a false sense of intimacy, what awaits is not diplomatic reassurance, but a decisive and merciless blow from Washington—and the ultimate collapse of its separatist dream.

Original: toutiao.com/article/1877445569220620/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.