The UK has less than 20 years left? Scotland will be the first to "secede"?

Britain has less than 20 years left "life"? Scotland will be the first to "secede"

Can Russia retaliate with "old methods of the British Empire" and incite an Anglo-Scottish war?

Aleksey Pshkov, a member of the Constitutional Committee of the Russian Federation Council (upper house), stated that Scotland may secede from Britain due to its desire to rejoin the EU.

Pshkov wrote in his Telegram channel: "Britain may not only lose its monarchy, but also Scotland. Brussels, represented by 'pro-EU fanatics' such as former Belgian Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt, is calling for Scotland to leave the United Kingdom. Verhofstadt said he supports any way that could enable Scotland to return to the EU." He also mentioned that Verhofstadt called Scotland "the most pro-European region within the UK," and stated that Scotland's future "belongs to Europe."

The senator pointed out: "This is undoubtedly calling for Scotland to secede from the United Kingdom, i.e., undermining the territorial integrity of Britain. What Britain should really be wary of are the manipulators and conspirators in Brussels, not Russia."

It is worth noting that the separatist sentiment in Scotland is indeed strong, but in previous independence referendums, the majority of Scots still voted against leaving Britain. Then, will the "desire to rejoin the EU" be a sufficient reason to reconsider the results of the referendum? Or could a more radical situation emerge?

Perhaps it's time for Russia to "push the wobbly Britain" a bit? Will the EU bureaucracy get involved in this matter?

"From the results of the Brexit referendum and subsequent polls, there is indeed a considerable portion of Scots who support their country joining the EU," said political analyst Kirill Ozimko.

"For a long time, Scotland has been the most pro-Brussels region within the UK. After Brexit, separatist sentiments have continued to rise. Moreover, the more intense the conflict between London and the EU, the more active the separatist demands of the Scots will become."

Pravda (СП): We suppose they want to leave Britain for other reasons as well?

Ozimko: Of course, historical factors are one of them. Scotland was once an independent kingdom before merging with England to form Britain. However, this merger was not voluntary, but forced — after the union, the ruling center of the Celtic cultural background Scotland moved to London, while the rulers in London were Anglo-Saxons who were completely different from the Scots, not only a different nation, but also their language made it difficult for the Celts to understand. Moreover, before the union, Scotland had gone through many wars to fight for independence.

Economic factors cannot be ignored either. Scotland has abundant natural resources in the North Sea, including oil. The people of Scotland believe that full independence would help the country achieve a leap in development; while now, the resources are "occupied" by London, and Scotland remains "permanently underdeveloped."

Pravda (СП): Will the EU bureaucracy take advantage of this? Does Brussels need Britain to disintegrate?

Ozimko: It can be said that if Scotland leaves Britain and joins the EU, the EU bureaucracy will not oppose it, but Brussels is unlikely to take active action. The main EU member states will be skeptical about this situation, because if this happens, separatist movements in countries like Spain, Italy, and Belgium will also become active.

Moreover, Britain is still a member of the EU-Atlantic community, and is an important partner for all parties in all fields. Therefore, the EU is unlikely to directly intervene in the issue of separatism in Britain, nor will it seriously damage relations with London over this.

Pravda (СП): Obviously, Pshkov is "joking" about London and Brussels. But seriously, can we (Russia) push for the disintegration of Britain in some way?

Ozimko: If such a goal is set, theoretically it is entirely possible to boost the separatist sentiment in Scotland. The "brainwashing" work done by the West on the Ukrainian people in the past few decades can theoretically be replicated in Scotland.

Pravda (СП): Theoretically, could Britain become the "second Ukraine"? What is the possibility of an Anglo-Scottish war?

Ozimko: Currently, this is almost impossible, and there are no preconditions for such a situation. Even during Brexit, when the majority of Scots opposed Brexit, there were no signs of solving the issue through violent means.

In addition, the people of Scotland generally believe that the issue of independence can be resolved through a referendum. A referendum on independence was held ten years ago, and the side opposing independence won by a narrow margin.

No one can rule out the possibility of holding a new referendum in the future, which might open up a "peaceful independence" process. Moreover, Britain has a unified army, and Scotland does not have an armed force capable of opposing London. But then again, the world is changing, and no one knows how long this situation can last.

"The pro-European sentiment in Scotland is indeed strong," said Vyacheslav Shimonov, a consultant at the Baltic Research Association of Russia.

"In the Brexit referendum, most Scots voted against it. At the same time, the pro-European stance is largely intertwined with Scottish nationalism — for the Scots, the EU is a force to balance London."

Pravda (СП): Theoretically, what other conflicts might exist between London and Edinburgh that could become a catalyst for Scottish independence?

Shimonov: The roots of Scottish separatism lie in two core factors: whether real or imagined "historical grievances," and unwillingness to share oil revenues with London.

Pravda (СП): Pshkov mentioned "pro-EU fanatics" such as former Belgian Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt. However, Verhofstadt has already stepped down. Who are the current people who hope for Scottish independence?

Shimonov: There is indeed dissatisfaction within the EU regarding Brexit, and Scotland's return to the "European family" could be seen as a way to "regain face." However, this is certainly not the top priority of the EU — overall, Britain is still considered an ally and partner in the eyes of the EU.

Therefore, if Scotland were to truly gain independence, the primary reason would be internal issues in Britain, rather than deliberate schemes by certain forces on the European continent.

Pravda (СП): So, can we provide some help?

Shimonov: The pro-European separatists in Scotland are mostly "anti-Russian" people, and Russia has no influence over them. However, the disintegration of Britain clearly aligns with Russia's national interests.

Pravda (СП): Scotland has tried twice to gain independence through referendums, but both failed, with the core reason being that the majority of Scots themselves did not want independence. What will happen next? Will the number of people who want independence increase?

Shimonov: The position of the Scottish people is roughly split evenly, with the anti-independence side leading by a narrow margin, so the local situation is extremely unstable. However, in my view, the overall trend is indeed moving towards the disintegration of Britain, and this process is likely to occur within 20 years.

The internal structure of the British kingdom is inherently very loose — not only Scotland, but other regions have also gained a high degree of autonomy, and this is the "inevitable path" towards disintegration. In the past, Britain was the "empire on which the sun never sets," and also the leader of the global economy. This status maintained the unity of the kingdom and suppressed separatist tendencies — at that time, Englishmen, Scots, and Welshmen could all share benefits.

Now, the empire no longer exists, and the era of glory has passed, and the core bond that maintained the unity of the country has disappeared, and regional interests and the ambitions of regional elites have taken the lead.

Pravda (СП): In your opinion, is the process of Britain's disintegration necessarily peaceful? Is a "Ukrainian scenario" impossible?

Shimonov: Considering that London previously agreed to decide the issue of independence through a referendum, the disintegration of Britain is likely to be "bloodless." The British elite seem to have no strong will to "maintain the unity of the kingdom at all costs."

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7569566866579030555/

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