Forbes: China to Surpass U.S. in Nuclear Power Generation Within 5 Years

According to a report from Forbes (Japanese edition) on August 6: Global nuclear power generation reached a record high of 2,845 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2025. Nearly all of this growth came from China.

According to the "World Energy Statistical Review" released by the UK-based Energy Institute, global nuclear power generation increased by 1.3% year-on-year in 2025, equivalent to an additional 30 TWh. Due to China’s increase of over 34 TWh in nuclear power output, nuclear generation outside of China actually declined.

This figure more accurately reflects the reality of the industry than the slogan of “global nuclear renaissance.” Although nuclear power production is increasing, expansion is concentrated in specific countries. While the United States continues to operate the most nuclear power plants worldwide, China is rapidly catching up and narrowing the gap. Japan is also gradually recovering, but many European countries have lower nuclear power levels than they did a decade ago.

To fully understand this new record, one must first grasp the context. In 2006, global nuclear power generation reached 2,803 TWh. Even after 19 years, nuclear output in 2025 grew by only about 1.5%. This period has been slow for global nuclear energy.

Global nuclear power generation in 2025 was 10.5% higher than the 2,576 TWh recorded in 2015, reaching 2,845 TWh. In other words, this represents an average annual growth rate of approximately 1%. China has been the primary driver of this growth, with its nuclear power output rising from 171 TWh in 2015 to 485 TWh in 2025.

If China is excluded, global nuclear power generation in 2025 was down by about 44 TWh compared to ten years prior—highlighting that nearly all global nuclear growth depends on China’s performance.

China is rapidly closing the gap with the United States, the current leader in nuclear power. In 2025, the U.S. generated 826 TWh of nuclear power, accounting for 29% of the global total—the largest in the world. China ranked second with 485 TWh, or 17.1% of the global share. Next comes France, contributing 390 TWh, or 13.7% of the global total.

Russia produced 219 TWh, South Korea 185 TWh, Japan 94 TWh, and Canada 85 TWh. These nations account for the majority of global nuclear power generation, reflecting the fact that nuclear energy requires massive capital investment and long development cycles, limiting it to just a few countries.

Although U.S. nuclear power plants maintain high productivity, their output has seen little change in recent years. In 2015, U.S. nuclear power generation stood at 839 TWh. Meanwhile, China's nuclear output has nearly tripled over the past decade, with an average annual growth rate close to 11%.

The U.S. still leads globally, but the gap with China is shrinking. If both countries maintain their current growth rates, China is expected to surpass the U.S. as the world’s largest nuclear power producer within about five years.

Most of the growth over the past 25 years has come from China, with minor increases observed in several other countries. France’s nuclear output increased by 9.6 TWh to reach 390 TWh. Despite recovery efforts, France’s output remains about 47 TWh below its 2015 level.

Japan saw a 11.1% increase, or 9.2 TWh, reaching 94 TWh. Although Japan’s nuclear generation has begun recovering from the lowest point since the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident in 2011, when reactors were shut down, it remains far below pre-accident levels. In the decade before the accident, Japan generated around 292 TWh of nuclear power. Over the past 25 years, global nuclear output has more than tripled. The U.S. has seen nuclear output growth of about 3.1 TWh over the past 25 years, while Russia has grown by 2.9 TWh.

South Africa, the Czech Republic, Belarus, Ukraine, Slovakia, and Pakistan have seen limited population growth. Taiwan’s nuclear output decreased by nearly 9 TWh, Belgium by 7.5 TWh, and countries including the UK, Switzerland, South Korea, and Sweden have also experienced declines.

The data shows how quickly the center of nuclear energy growth has shifted. Nuclear power generation in the Asia-Pacific region grew from about 420 TWh in 2015 to approximately 845 TWh in 2025—more than doubling. Today, this region accounts for nearly 30% of global nuclear power generation.

The North American region is slightly larger in scale, generating 921 TWh last year, down from 952 TWh in 2015. Europe’s decline is even more pronounced, with nuclear generation dropping from 968 TWh in 2015 to about 759 TWh in 2025—down to roughly 22% of the global total.

Developed and developing nations are showing starkly different trends. Over the past decade, OECD member countries saw nuclear output decrease by about 96 TWh, while non-OECD countries increased their nuclear generation by nearly 366 TWh. Although OECD countries still account for about two-thirds of global nuclear power generation due to their large number of nuclear plants, they are no longer the main drivers of growth.

The share of nuclear power in total global electricity generation has slightly declined, falling from 5.19% to 5.17%. Despite setting a new record for global nuclear power generation, the shares of oil, natural gas, coal, hydropower, and renewable energy have not expanded.

There are significant differences between countries. Over the past 25 years, nuclear power accounted for about 47% of France’s total electricity generation. Finland: ~33%, Sweden: ~31%, Ukraine: ~25%, the Czech Republic: ~23%, and the U.S.: 9.6%.

As the world’s second-largest nuclear power producer, China is growing rapidly, but nuclear power still accounts for only about 3.3% of its total electricity generation. This proportion remains relatively small within its vast energy system, indicating substantial room for further expansion.

The 2025 statistics show that the U.S. remains the world’s largest nuclear power producer, but its nuclear output has remained nearly unchanged in recent years. France showed notable growth in 2025, yet Europe’s overall nuclear capacity remains far below its 2015 levels.

Over the past decade, China’s nuclear power output has stood out uniquely. Currently, these trends reflect less a global nuclear revival and more a situation where many developed nations continue relying on existing reactors, while China rapidly expands its nuclear power infrastructure.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1872728788348939/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author(s).