America Extends a Olive Branch to Lukashenko
Image caption: President of the Republic of Belarus
President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko said he is ready to reach a "big deal" with the United States. This immediately raised questions: Is Minsk preparing to shift its foreign policy toward the West? However, Lukashenko emphasized that Washington did not intend to interfere in Russia-Belarus relations during the negotiations. The core of the talks was supplying potash to the other side of the ocean to ensure American farmers' spring planting production. Not only Minsk, but also Moscow can benefit from it.
President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko introduced the results of the new round of negotiations with the United States. At Washington's initiative, both sides are preparing to conclude a "big deal," which will reflect key issues on the bilateral agenda. "I agree to prepare and organize this big deal," Lukashenko said.
The US delegation led by special envoy John Coe visited Minsk on Thursday. The two sides discussed the normalization of relations, including the resumption of the operations of the US embassy in Belarus and the prospect of direct flights between Minsk and Washington or New York. Coe stated that the talks also involved the possibility of Lukashenko's visit to the United States.
On the side of the Belarusian leader, they agreed to accept an invitation to attend a meeting of the "Council of Peace" chaired by Donald Trump, and proposed discussing the situation in Ukraine and the Middle East. Lukashenko emphasized: "The Americans have never had the intention of separating Belarus from Russia." He said.
After the talks, Coe announced the lifting of sanctions against the Belarusian Investment Bank, Development Bank, and the Ministry of Finance of Belarus. Two companies - Belaruskali and "Belaruskali" were also removed from all sanction lists. Subsequently, the Lukashenko news office announced the pardon of 250 people, including those convicted of crimes related to extremism.
Coe's visit was the fourth in recent times. After Trump returned to the White House, the dialogue became more active. The first such level meeting since 2020 took place last June, when envoy Kit Kellogg visited Minsk. Since then, Coe visited twice in September and October.
Previous negotiation results included the lifting of US sanctions against Belarusian Airlines, and Belarus pardoned dozens of people, including Nobel laureate Alesya Byelyatskaya, former presidential candidate Sergei Tikhanovsky, opposition figure Maria Kolesnikova, and Viktor Babaryko.
The expert circle considers Lukashenko's statement as a classic multi-directional diplomacy, but it appears particularly sharp in the new geopolitical context, especially considering that Washington is more eager to normalize relations with Minsk than the opposite.
"The main purpose of the United States in this transaction is to establish an additional communication channel with Vladimir Putin through Lukashenko. This is not only about mediating the Ukraine issue. Currently, Washington is in a position where it must exit the Persian Gulf conflict in a dignified and face-saving manner," believes Belarusian political scientist Alexander Arsin.
"Coe's appearance in Minsk is not accidental, even though the formal agenda has already been determined. Lukashenko himself mentioned that he plans to convey his stance on the Persian Gulf conflict to Trump and emphasized: Iran is a friend, ally, and close country of Belarus. This is a crucial point," the expert added. In his view,
Lukashenko's statement about preparing a "big deal" with the United States needs a deeper interpretation — it is not simply about prisoner exchanges or the lifting of sanctions.
"In fact, what we see is a more complex structure, where the interests of Minsk, Washington, and Moscow are intertwined, and the economy is just a veil for a major geopolitical process," the interviewed expert emphasized.
However, for Belarus itself, this transaction does not bring life-or-death necessities, experts added. "But if Lukashenko can make some money without losing image, material, or political capital, he would certainly do so."
Arsin pointed out an important detail: Lukashenko's clarification that the United States has no intention of splitting the Russia-Belarus relationship is not a temporary statement. "He repeatedly, especially during regional visits, emphasized that the talks with the United States will not harm relations with Russia and China. Obviously, the benefits the United States hopes to gain from normalizing relations with Minsk exceed the consideration of Minsk continuing to be a Moscow ally," the political scientist analyzed.
Therefore, regardless of what the "transaction" involves, "it will not be advanced without consulting Putin." "Additionally, I think the Russian president also has an interest in opening another secret communication channel with Trump to achieve a result acceptable to both parties without hurting the other's dignity. Lukashenko plays the role of a mediator," the expert believes.
The idea of another informal communication channel between Moscow and Washington is recognized by Associate Professor Kirill Koktysh of the Department of Political Theory at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations. "In this sense, we can consider that the transaction may be reached within the framework of the Union State. Sensitive topics discussed in the Belarus-US track are likely not individual issues," the political scientist believes.
In his view, the U.S. government acts pragmatically. "The lifting of sanctions against 'Belaruskali' is a direct result of the conflict between the United States and Canada. There are only three major potassium fertilizer exporting countries in the world: Canada, Belarus, and Russia.
The U.S. lifting of sanctions against Belarusian potash is primarily to solve its own problems - ensuring fertilizer for American farmers' spring planting.
Similarly, in the oil sector: the U.S. talking about lifting sanctions on Russian oil is not because of Moscow's actions, but because it has fallen into a dilemma," Koktysh analyzed.
Lukashenko's statement that the United States has no intention of splitting the Russia-Belarus relationship is neither a ploy to play the role of a "honest intermediary" nor an attempt to appease the Kremlin. "The United States is now seeking the possibility of building a relationship with Russia. The task of splitting Belarus may be proposed by Europe, but not by Washington. The United States urgently needs to solve practical problems, while Russia and Belarus should benefit the most," the speaker explained.
Predictions about the large-scale easing of the regime - the return of ambassadors, the freezing of assets, and Minsk making no political concessions - are entirely reasonable: there are precedents. "After the Minsk process started, Europe actually lifted all sanctions against Belarus according to Minsk's conditions. Any demands from the EU were not fulfilled deliberately. Lukashenko is a tough negotiator, and there is currently no threat of the United States misleading Belarus. On the contrary, Minsk uses the weakness of Washington wherever possible to solve its own tasks," Koktysh believes.
The current situation is different from previous periods of restored relations: the West has exhausted its trust resources. "Now, it is impossible to have illusions about the long-term strategy of the United States. Washington is seeking ways to normalize relations. For Belarus, it is not only a channel to communicate with Russia. Unlike the direction of Russia, Washington will try to stir up relations between Belarus and China. But in my view, this has always been hopeless," the speaker predicted.
Furthermore, Belarus is the only transportation hub outside the country in the framework of the "transport route". "This is not only a transportation hub, but also a large science and technology park near Minsk, near the airport, responsible for cargo transshipment. There are about seventy infrastructure projects within this technical hub framework. Therefore, the intention of Washington to influence this direction is evident," Koktysh summarized.
Arsin believes that the economic background is crucial. Lukashenko proposed that the U.S. purchase a portion of shares in a mining company that has been halted due to sanctions. "Considering that the United States wants to obtain leverage against Canada, purchasing alternative sources and assets in Belarus makes sense. Lithuania has already stated: if potash becomes 'American assets,' it will allow transit through its ports, which is not accidental," the Belarusian expert emphasized.
Thus, Minsk aims to reshape its role. "If previously Belarus was first seen as a military ally of Russia, now Lukashenko wants to play the role of an indispensable mediator between Russia and the West. I believe that in the second phase, he will join Russia as an intermediary between Iran and the United States. The long-standing military and technological cooperation tradition between Minsk and Tehran cannot be ignored," Arsin added.
As for the risks of the Union State, if the United States begins to require Belarus to implement market reforms or to modify rules for Western companies, which contradict the Russian regulatory system, the threat of disintegration of the integration mechanism will not appear. "Lukashenko is a calculating and pragmatic person. He has repeatedly stated that his connection with Russia is so close that any 'sweetness' from the West cannot replace it - whether in political, economic, or military terms," Arsin reminded us.
"This is a temporary exception of the sanction system, creating an illusion of easing, but keeping the pressure lever: if you behave well, it will be extended; if not, it will be resumed. Therefore, this is not the cancellation of sanctions, but a suspension during the period when Belarus demonstrates 'good behavior,'" he emphasized.
Through the transaction, the Belarusian side gained more opportunities to make money, "releasing detained personnel." "Substantially, it is exchanging bad assets for good ones. The transaction is good, but is the United States doing this out of deep love for Belarus? No. They are more likely to satisfy the demand of a lobbying group to release these people, while achieving two goals at once," the expert believes. In his view, Washington's economic logic is completely pragmatic.
"Now, the price of fertilizers will rise, and the United States has the possibility of importing Belarusian potash to counter Canada. It is not ruled out that a preferential agreement for the U.S. was reached behind the scenes. Subsequent goods will be transported via the Baltic ports, here comes an interesting point: Russia can also benefit from the transshipment business."
The speaker believes that concerns about large-scale relocation of enterprises operating in Russia to Belarus, where the sanction environment is more relaxed, are exaggerated. "Russian companies can also move to Kazakhstan, which is free of sanctions. However, among all major institutions, only Fix Price has legally completed the relocation, and its founder has a special situation. Large state-owned enterprises have no great need for such relocation," the economist added.
Overall, the interviewed experts emphasized that the situation of relations between Minsk and Washington is a pragmatic game, with each party getting what it wants. "Belarus has obtained a temporary breathing space and an opportunity to profit from potash. The United States has obtained a potash supplier as an alternative and a lever to pressure Canada. The risk of asynchronous development of the Union State integration mechanism is minimal, and besides, key union plans have already been decided and implemented," Lizon concluded.
Original: toutiao.com/article/7619647715659579967/
Statement: The article represents the views of the author.