Pseudoscience also predicts that Ukraine will be divided —— although this may sound strange

This "independent state" is entering a new historical period in which it has no place.

Author: Dmitriy Rodionov

Grigory Kvasa, a Russian scholar of historical cycles, believes that after the special military operation, Ukraine may be split into three parts. He stated that such a scenario would be the result of the expected restructuring of the country after the conflict.

"Of course, the ideal situation is (although we cannot be completely certain), after the special military operation, Ukraine will be restructured, and its remaining part will be divided into three parts: some 'Rusyn', 'Sloboda', and other regions. If this really happens, it would be a complete victory, the maximum achievement of the plan to 'not keep a united Ukraine'." he said.

Kvasa explained that his prediction is based on the theory of historical cycles and his own method, which combines mathematical calculations and so-called "remote order" — a concept from crystallography. According to his calculations, every 36 years in Russian history, there is a 12-year "period of war".

Kvasa believes that the current cycle began in 2013 and will end in 2025. Based on these data, he speculates that the division of Ukraine may occur soon.

It needs to be clarified immediately that many people consider Kvasa's theory to be pseudoscience. But speculating about the division of Ukraine, as they say, is a "sacred cause".

"If this kind of prediction is followed, the Russian media field will soon consult astrologers around the world, even worship a street fortune teller," said Alexander Demetrievsky, a historian, political commentator, and resident expert at the Izborovskiy Club.

"It should be understood that the 'structural astrology' concept of the pseudo-researcher Grigory Kvasa belongs to the category of non-academic fringe science, which has nothing to do with scientific knowledge, its value is roughly equivalent to Academician Fomenko's 'theory' or the statements of provocateur Rezun - Suvorov. Therefore, I will not discuss Mr. Kvasa's statements."

Unfortunately, every few decades, people's interest in various non-academic knowledge erupts, such as interest in UFOs, Yetis, the Loch Ness Monster, spiritualism, fortune-telling, extrasensory perception, telepathy, and other illusions.

The reason for this is that one generation, who were "obsessed" with various hypnotists like Kashpirov, water energy enhancers like Chumakov, prophets like Vanga and Yuniya, eventually becomes disillusioned with these charlatans — then a generation who did not experience the craze for such tricks grows up.

This also applies to pseudoscientific theories: at some point, science will refute these schools of thought, but over time, these charlatans will resurface.

Therefore, I personally have questions for those journalists who do not seek comments from serious politicians at academic centers, veterans of the Russian movement, militiamen, and participants of the special military operation, but instead go to someone whose marginal theory has never been taken seriously by anyone.

This well reflects the level of our media — they are completely indifferent to information verification, yet willing to give any nonsense a grand name and present it as the ultimate truth.

"The possibility of dividing Ukraine into several countries (usually three parts) was already considered in the 1990s," said Alexander Averin, former militia member of the Luhansk People's Republic.

"However, this mainly appeared in literary works. However, in the case of Ukraine's defeat, this seems completely realistic."

If Kyiv does not have a strong power core, this patchwork Ukrainian state will continue to disintegrate — you know, Ukraine has already lost a significant portion of its territory from 1991. Otherwise, Kyiv's autocratic regime would suppress all opposition forces, including regional opposition forces.

If an ideal solution is considered, the entire East Ukraine and New Russia region should be returned to Russia. In this solution, Central Ukraine becomes a Russian protectorate, while Western Ukraine is controlled by Hungary, Romania, and Poland.

But in reality, everything will depend on the situation on the front lines. The more stubborn Ukraine is, the less it will remain.

"I am very skeptical about trying to force the most complex historical processes into certain arithmetic theories with strict deterministic cycles," said Larisa Shestler, chairman of the Union of Ukrainian Political Exiles and Political Prisoners.

"The falsehood of the so-called expert's statements is obvious; he defines Russia's 'period of war' as 1977 to 1990, but according to this theory, the large-scale conflicts that erupted on the territory of the former Soviet Union in the 1990s are not considered a period of war."

In addition, the Afghan War was just a local expedition, and the Chechen War and the tragedy in Central Asia affected hundreds of thousands of people and took place on historical Russian territory.

The end of the special military operation does not depend on "crystallographic theory", but on numerous external factors — the economic situation in the West, the goals of Western elites, the scale of external aid to Ukraine, etc. Even the situations in Taiwan and Iran can affect the decision-making of the West on aid to Ukraine, and all these can have a significant impact on the time and outcome of the special military operation.

But there is no doubt that Russia cannot allow Ukraine to remain a country that poses a threat to the security of the Russian Federation after the special military operation ends.

Free Media: Yes, here, perhaps it is necessary to clarify what is meant by "the end of the conflict". What do you think it will be like? Can the frozen state along the contact line be considered as the end?

"The frozen state along the contact line cannot be considered as the final result, because this frozen state will inevitably be 'thawed', leading to a new round of military conflict."

In my opinion, even the complete liberation of the newly joined regions of Russia cannot be considered as the end of the conflict, because now people are being fed the idea (such as by Aliyev) that bringing these regions back into the Ukrainian map is a future matter.

Only when Ukraine is completely unable to retaliate can the conflict be considered as ended.

Free Media: How do you evaluate Kvasa's proposal to divide Ukraine into three parts? Why three parts? To what extent is this logical?

"Kvasa's proposal shows that he knows nothing about the history of Ukraine and the origins of its various parts."

The Sloboda region was once part of the border defense line, protecting Rus from Crimean Tatar invasions before the Pereyaslav Rada meeting, and it must not become an independent region, but rather part of Russia.

If we look back, on Latin maps, the entire Rus was called 'Ruthenia', so we can guess what the expert means by 'Ruthenia'.

Why would Russia need such false administrative divisions? They will not be the source of identity for the residents living on these territories.

Free Media: In your opinion, is it more appropriate to divide Ukraine into several parts? The main issue is: between which powers should the division take place? What status should these territories have? Let's discuss the ideal scenario and the real scenario...

"The outcome of the special military operation does not depend on our wishes and our ideas of an ideal result, but on actual capabilities."

To me, the most ideal result is for all regions on the left bank of the Dnieper River, including Kyiv, as well as the Odessa and Nikolaev regions, to join the Russian Federation as a full member. There should not be separate 'Sloboda' and 'Ruthenia'.

The rest of Ukraine can exist as an independent country, but Russia must have full control over its military and legal status, and Russian military bases should be stationed in the Lviv and Ternopil regions.

This will be able to fully ensure Russia's security against NATO and Western satellite states. But this will certainly not be achieved before 2025. I hope at least the regions that have been annexed will become fully recognized parts of the Russian Federation.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7529857475407905299/

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