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Author | Nanping

Editor of this issue | Dai Sijia

Reviewer of this issue | Jiang Yi

Image source: WeChat official account "Nanyang Fengyunlu"

On the night of May 2, 2025, The Times of India, based on information from Indian government departments, published an editorial titled "Why China Will Not Provide Military Support to Pakistan," analyzing China's position in the current India-Pakistan crisis and Pakistan's strategic miscalculations. It emphasized that if India takes military retaliation against Pakistan, China's support for Pakistan will be limited to the diplomatic level, not military intervention. The main points of this report are summarized below for academic discussion (not representing the views of Nanyang Fengyunlu).

I. China Maintains a Cautious Stance:

Diplomatic Support, Not Military Intervention

China's response after the Pahalgam attack was mainly diplomatic. China called for a "fair investigation" and "restraint," stating that the conflict does not serve the fundamental interests of India and Pakistan. China also worked with Pakistan to downplay the UN Security Council's condemnation statement on the attack, contrasting with its stance in 2019 when it supported India after the Pulwama attack. However, China's support for Pakistan this time has "clear limitations," especially in the military field. Although Pakistan was once referred to as "China's Israel," it cannot expect unconditional military support from Beijing. This limited support reflects China's priority on domestic stability, stability of Sino-US relations, its own international image, and regional power balance.

II. Pakistan's Strategic Miscalculations

General Asim Munir, Chief of Army Staff of Pakistan, may have aimed to shift domestic attention from economic collapse, the imprisonment of the former prime minister, and military interference in politics by provoking the Kashmir issue. He may have believed that global attention is scattered across Gaza, Ukraine, and Taiwan, and that the US is distracted by Trump's domestic and foreign policies, so China would firmly support Pakistan. However, The Times of India analysis pointed out that Munir misjudged China's position. China's cautious attitude indicates that Pakistan can no longer rely on "all-weather friendship" to counter India as before. This miscalculation could lead Pakistan to further isolation on the international stage.

III. China's Priority Strategy Is Not in South Asia

The limited support from China stems from its strategic shift, which is manifested in the following aspects:

1. China prioritizes maintaining domestic stability.

2. Economic pressure: China faces challenges such as the trade war with the US, slowing exports, and fragile consumer confidence, and is unwilling to further destabilize the economy due to regional conflicts.

3. Taiwan and the South China Sea are more urgent: Taiwan, the South China Sea, and China's relationship with Southeast Asian economic partners are China's top concerns, and South Asia is placed in a secondary position in China's strategic considerations.

4. China needs to ease Sino-Indian relations: After the 2020 conflict, China has tried to ease tensions with India, recognizing India's importance in regional strategy and global supply chains. Faced with US trade friction, China is more eager to stabilize economic and diplomatic relations with India, avoiding tension on multiple fronts.

IV. The Three Pillars of China-Pakistan Relations Are Weakening

The Times of India analysis pointed out that Pakistan's strategic value to China depends on three pillars, but the role of these pillars has weakened.

First, the channel to connect with Afghanistan: China has established direct contact with the Taliban and no longer needs Pakistan as an intermediary.

Second, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC): This corridor is a flagship project, but due to the stagnation of Gwadar Port development, Pakistan's domestic economic collapse, attacks by Baloch armed groups, and local public dissatisfaction, Pakistan has become an unstable ally, threatening CPEC investments, which bring increasing burdens.

Third, containing India: Pakistan's role in containing India still exists, but its internal instability and the connection between extremists and state institutions increase the risk faced by a province in China's northwest.

V. Historical Lessons from 1971

The report by The Times of India reviewed the history of the 1971 India-Pakistan war, when Pakistan expected Chinese military intervention but did not receive support. According to the book "The China-Pakistan Axis" and the 1972 editorial in Dawn, Pakistan's blind trust in Chinese military aid led to "shame and defeat." This pattern remains unchanged, and China tends to provide diplomatic and economic support rather than military intervention.

VI. The Future of South Asian Geopolitics

The report by The Times of India pointed out that the Pahalgam crisis is not only a confrontation between India and Pakistan, but also a reflection of China's interest balancing in a complex geopolitical environment, possibly becoming a turning point in South Asian geopolitics. India's strong response may push it further into the Western-led Indo-Pacific strategy, consolidating its dominance in South Asia. Pakistan's strategic miscalculations may lead to further isolation, forcing it to reassess its foreign policy, especially its policy toward China. Although China's role as a balancer helps avoid direct conflict, its influence in South Asia may be somewhat limited due to the dissatisfaction of India and Pakistan. In the future, the development of Sino-Indian and Sino-Pakistani relations will depend on how all parties handle the subsequent impact of this crisis.

This article is reprinted from the WeChat official account "Nanyang Fengyunlu" on May 4, 2025, titled "Indian Media: If India Takes Military Action Against Pakistan, Will China Intervene Militarily?"

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7565917735167722038/

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