3528 words in this article
Estimated reading time: 8 minutes
Author | P・R・Shankar (P R Shankar)
Translated by | Xu Bingnan, Aslan
Translation Reviewer | Hu Keyi
Editor of this issue | Dai Sijia
Reviewer of this issue | Jiang Yi
Editor's Note
Recently, former Indian Army Major General P・R・Shankar released a video on YouTube analyzing the reasons behind China's recent sudden efforts to befriend India. The author points out that with the restructuring of the global power dynamics, facing the possible new triangle relationship between the US, India, and Russia, as well as its own economic and international discourse challenges, China urgently needs to win over India to avoid being marginalized. Shankar also believes that China attempts to counter the US-dominated order through soft discourses such as "dragon and elephant dancing together" and "cooperation between ancient civilizations," and weaken the Indo-US strategic partnership. However, China's friendliness lacks substantial responses to core issues such as the China-India border, making its motives clearly utilitarian and lacking credible foundations. With the rapid progress of the "India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor" (IMEC), China is wary of India's rising geopolitical economy and thus accelerates its strategy towards India. Shankar suggests that behind China's "appeal," there may be deeper intentions of containment and division, and India should maintain strategic clarity and carefully assess any "warm embrace" from any direction. It should be noted that this video speech has obvious pre-set positions and contains several clearly incorrect pieces of information, representing only a typical logic of India's military hardliners toward China. The South Asian Research Communications hereby transcribes the relevant video and translates this article for critical reference.
Image Source: Internet
Why is China trying to befriend India? Why has this shift occurred? In fact, this trend was already evident in early March.
In recent times, China has been worried that Russia might "decouple" from it. The United States is reshaping the global landscape, and Trump's series of actions have exceeded the expectations of China and Russia. From the Chinese perspective, India maintains a close relationship with Russia while also maintaining good interactions with the United States. If the "US-India-Russia triangle" emerges, China will inevitably be marginalized.
Additionally, the Chinese side believes that the Trump administration has shown some disregard for India. Prime Minister Modi's visit to the US in February 2025 did not yield substantial results, and even faced neglect and coldness from the US side. China sees this disharmony between India and the US as an opportunity to befriend India, and this consideration involves both geopolitical and economic factors.
China's economy currently faces many challenges. Europe is shifting its strategic focus to defense, making it difficult for China to penetrate; Sino-US trade is hindered by numerous American barriers. In this context, India has become one of the few major economies where China still has potential for further development. From the Chinese perspective, if the Indo-US relationship deepens further, it would be very detrimental to China. Therefore, befriending India is almost its only option.
Even if it cannot truly gain India's full support, China at least hopes to use certain means to hinder the deepening of the Indo-US partnership, which is one of the motivations for its active engagement with India. This strategic intention is reflected in recent reports about the Two Sessions. For example, an article published in the South China Morning Post cited the Chinese Foreign Minister's remarks at the press conference during the Two Sessions, titled "In the Turbulent Era of Trump, China Firmly Positions Itself as a Just Force for Maintaining World Peace and Stability." As I mentioned earlier, China aims to seize the current opportunity to portray itself as a guardian of global stability and promote the construction of a "post-American world order" led by China. Despite numerous challenges, China remains optimistic about this vision and continues to work towards it, while trying to maneuver between various parties.
An article in Outlook states that China and India should "be partners who achieve each other, and 'dragon and elephant dancing together' is the only correct choice for both sides." Previously, China rarely made such statements. Afterward, India Today reported on it, and almost all mainstream Indian media mentioned the term "dragon and elephant dancing together."
China's efforts to befriend India during the Trump era are based on Trump's tariff policies, which have always been a focal point of Sino-US rivalry. There are voices within India questioning, "Why should we continue to maintain close relations with the United States?" This doubt is not entirely without reason. However, in reality, India still needs to face the necessity of engaging with the United States. Can India completely trust China? Obviously not.
Where did this "dragon and elephant dancing together" idea come from again? I did a quick search and found something interesting, from the official website of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Chinese Foreign Minister's original words stated that being partners who achieve each other and realizing "dragon and elephant dancing together" is the only correct choice for both sides. What is the logic behind this? The logic is that China and India are each other's largest neighbors, so they should coexist peacefully and develop together. They then said, "As two of the largest developing countries, our common task is to accelerate the development and revitalization of our respective countries. Both sides should support each other rather than consume each other, and cooperate closely rather than guard against each other," which sounds reasonable. But what they didn't mention is when China and India will resolve the border issue? They didn't talk about the core issue of China-India relations, the border problem, focusing only on the economy, as if they don't care about resolving the border issue.
Then, China also introduced the perspective of "ancient civilizations," emphasizing that we are both ancient civilizations and should have enough wisdom and ability to maintain peace and stability in the border areas, and have the responsibility to lead the opposition against hegemonism and power politics. It is clearly pointing to the United States: their underlying message is "You see, both of us have relied on the United States, and we have suffered the consequences. Now, if you continue to rely on the United States, where will you end up?" This is the message they are trying to convey.
They also said, "If China and India join hands, the democratization of international relations and the growth of the Global South will be promising." China's effort to "lure" India is evident, should India accept it? Obviously not.
Video screenshot. Image source: YouTube account GUNNERS SHOT
More interestingly, when I was researching this specific topic, I also saw some scholars from the Observer Network discussing the US-India relationship. I plan to read it more carefully later and share some interesting views with you. We need to understand who we are dealing with; if India follows China too much, it would be foolish. Additionally, I don't know whether it's true or not, but Chinese media are saying that India secretly launched a new round of app bans, with 119 Chinese applications listed on the ban list (Note: This is a misinterpretation by the speaker, the report was actually translated from an Indian media outlet called "The Organiser" by the South Asian Research Communications, not an original report by Chinese media). Regarding these details, I plan to conduct a more detailed analysis and make a follow-up video, where I can discuss them in depth.
Video screenshot. Image source: YouTube account GUNNERS SHOT
Okay, moving on, China is also concerned about the "India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor" (IMEC) and has done a lot of analysis (Note: The speaker here defines the article from the South China Morning Post on March 8 titled "India's Response to China's 'Belt and Road Initiative' Begins to Take Shape" as "Chinese strategic circle views," but in fact, the author of the article is not a Chinese analyst, but an Indian journalist named Junaid Kathju). There are many reasons why China is worried: IMEC is a real threat and will soon be restarted. These media also wrote, "India's response to China's 'Belt and Road Initiative' begins to take shape." Why is China afraid of IMEC? First, as I discussed yesterday, the "Belt and Road Initiative" was not mentioned as an engine for economic recovery at the Two Sessions this year, and even wasn't mentioned at all.
Second, China is worried that once IMEC is implemented, it will break the current situation and put China at a disadvantage in terms of geopolitical economy. Regarding the specific content of IMEC and its strategic significance for India, I will explore it in detail in subsequent programs. But from the current dynamics, on one hand, China is actively seeking to improve relations with India and strive for cooperation; on the other hand, it is also highly vigilant towards IMEC. If the project eventually takes shape, it will have a substantive impact on China's original geopolitical economic strategy. In this context, China naturally tries to block the advancement of IMEC through various means, and winning over India is a key step. By connecting these moves, the overall logic becomes relatively clear.
How does China view IMEC? The article says that IMEC not only enhances India's connectivity, economic opportunities, and international status, but also serves as a multi-country platform, collaborating with the G7 and regional countries to counteract China's "Belt and Road Initiative." These participants are very important, including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Jordan, Israel, Greece, Italy, etc., although some of these countries are not regionally located but are extra-regional, their participation itself is significant. Many countries have already joined the "Belt and Road Initiative," and once IMEC progresses, their roles in the "Belt and Road Initiative" will be weakened, or even completely shifted to IMEC. Turkey and Pakistan will be severely affected. The region is changing, for example, the Middle East peace process, the possible conclusion of the Ukraine-Russia war, and Trump's diplomatic moves toward Iran... In this context, IMEC is taking shape. Some say that India has no international influence, I think that is simply "living in a dream," no need to say more, the facts have already spoken.
Furthermore, the core of IMEC is to provide alternative routes to Europe, avoiding traditional channels that are prone to interference, such as the Suez Canal and the Red Sea route. This is beneficial for countries west of India, especially Gulf countries, in a way that can lock China out. Although China has some military deployments in Djibouti, they are still worried that IMEC could pose a challenge to their trade transportation routes. These are all views of the Chinese side, not my opinion. Another concern raised by Chinese analysts is that IMEC is a multi-country collaborative project, with India, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Israel, Greece, the EU, Italy, the US, etc., all involved, and each has clear interests and willingness to collaborate to ensure the success of IMEC and push the project forward. In the future, goods flow will be bidirectional, achieving a贯通 (smooth connection).
In contrast, the "Belt and Road" is structurally unidirectional—essentially led by China, with other countries playing a secondary role in the project's progress. Nowadays, many countries see China and the "Belt and Road" as a potential challenge to their own interests. Therefore, the probability of IMEC's success is actually higher. If IMEC proceeds, the influence of the "Belt and Road" will shrink, which is precisely the issue that China deeply worries about.
Therefore, on one hand, China is cautious about India's growing closer to the US and related countries, and its increasing international influence; on the other hand, it tries to gain India's cooperation by showing goodwill. Will this strategy work? Should India accept it? In my opinion, if we really accepted it, we would be the biggest fools—believe me, there is almost no one who would doubt this.
About the Author: P・R・Shankar, former Director of Artillery of the Indian Army. Currently a professor in the Department of Aerospace Engineering at the Indian Institute of Technology Madras.
This article is translated from a video on the YouTube account "GUNNERS SHOT" posted on March 9, 2025. The original link is:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M6iZpp7_qGQ&t=1s.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7565916986574176831/
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