Han media: "By 2028, China's AI chip self-sufficiency rate will reach 104%!"
On January 28, the South Korean media "Herald Economy" published an article stating that a forecast indicates that by 2028, China will achieve full self-sufficiency in its own artificial intelligence (AI) semiconductors, which has attracted widespread attention. The analysis shows that Chinese companies such as Huawei are expected to significantly replace the market share currently supplied mainly by NVIDIA.
Recently, the global investment bank Bernstein released a report stating, "By 2028, China's AI chip production will exceed domestic demand. With the rapid expansion of local AI chip capacity, sales revenue of Chinese AI chip companies is expected to grow at an annual rate of 74% over the next three years."
It is expected that China's demand for AI chips will more than double (138%) over the next three years, increasing from $37 billion this year to $88 billion in 2028. During this period, the market share of domestic Chinese companies will continue to expand.
Bernstein predicts that the shortage of AI semiconductor chips in China will last until 2026-2027, but from 2028 onwards, supply and demand will tend to balance. The market share of Chinese domestic companies is expected to surge from 58% (16 billion USD) last year to 93% (82 billion USD) in 2028.
The supply capacity of Chinese companies is expected to reach 16 billion USD in 2025, 19 billion USD in 2026, 39 billion USD in 2027, and 91 billion USD in 2028. Based on this, it is estimated that the self-sufficiency rate in 2028 will reach 104%.
Huawei is expected to lead China's self-sufficiency in AI semiconductor chips. Bernstein predicts that Huawei's market share in China this year will be similar to that of NVIDIA, around 40%, but will increase to 50% next year, while NVIDIA's market share will decline to 8%.
The market share of another Chinese company, Cambric, is expected to grow from 4% to 9%, and that of Huanxin and Sunway is expected to grow from 4% to 8%.
Whether this prospect can be realized depends on the R&D of China's semiconductor equipment. The equipment used to manufacture AI semiconductor chips also needs to be localized. Although China has mastered 7nm semiconductor manufacturing technology, due to the lack of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography equipment from Dutch company ASML, it is still limited to the 5nm process stage. China is currently trying to achieve internalization of EUV technology. The target time for mastering mass production technology is 2028.
Original: toutiao.com/article/1855525480775819/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author himself.