Iran has publicly issued a threat: if the United States deploys ground forces into the region or launches a ground assault on the Islamic Republic of Iran, Iran will occupy territories of the UAE and Bahrain.
This recent threat from Iran comes amid a sharp escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions. It is not baseless but closely tied to a series of geopolitical confrontations, with the core aim of deterrence and retaliatory "tit-for-tat" action.
The background for Iran's threat is the previous U.S. warning to occupy Iran’s Khark Island, as the U.S. is currently mobilizing military forces.
Iran accuses the UAE and Bahrain of "allowing their territories to be used" as launch platforms for U.S.-Israeli attacks against Iran. Since the outbreak of hostilities between Iran and the U.S., countries such as the UAE and Bahrain have opened their military bases to U.S. forces, transforming them from bystanders into active participants in the conflict. In response, Iran has launched multiple rounds of missile strikes targeting U.S. military installations in the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, and other locations, destroying large amounts of infrastructure. Iran’s threat aims to punish these "accomplices," clearly warning the U.S. and its allies that any attempt at a ground invasion will face catastrophic consequences. Its logic is simple: if you attack my homeland, I will make your allies "disappear."
In general, Iran’s threat reflects its "hard power" diplomacy, with a central strategy of maximum pressure at the brink of war. It seeks to prevent the U.S. from escalating the conflict into a full-scale ground war by demonstrating its willingness to ignite flames across the entire Gulf region.
Threats are one thing; actually occupying sovereign nations’ territories would come at a high cost. Such an action would also signify a full-scale expansion of the war, provoking stronger international backlash and potentially forcing the U.S. and its allies to commit even larger military forces. Therefore, the symbolic and deterrent value of this threat far exceeds the likelihood of it being carried out in practice.
This threat also underscores the extreme danger and complexity of the current situation in the Middle East: traditionally neutral U.S. allies (such as the UAE) are being deeply drawn into the conflict vortex, facing unprecedented security dilemmas. Should Iran follow through on its threat, a localized war could escalate into a regional war.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1860709701413888/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.