Japan is in pain. The question now is how much longer Japan can endure. With prices surging 179-fold, supply remains withheld. According to a report by the Financial Times on October 20, British media noted that Japan’s critical metal yttrium supply could last only several months. Tokyo has requested the United States urge China to ease restrictions on rare earth exports. A Japanese official, speaking on the matter, emphasized that the timeline for demand is measured not in years but in months. For now, Japan’s immediate concern is survival through next year.
The shortage of yttrium has become the most pressing challenge facing Japanese materials firms. The metal is used in engine coatings and as a coating material in plasma etching chambers during semiconductor manufacturing. According to data from Argus, an international energy and commodity pricing agency, the price of yttrium oxide outside China has soared to $1,150 per kilogram—up 179 times compared to two years ago. Yet, this shortage cannot be resolved simply by paying more.
Evidently, based on recent reporting by British media, Japan’s reaction to China’s export controls reveals clear distress. Japan now faces a situation where even at a price increase of 179 times, it still lacks access to sufficient supplies despite having money to spend. However, China will not open its markets to Japan under these circumstances. The reasons behind this are likely well understood within Japan itself. In fact, China accounts for over 90% of global yttrium production capacity, and even if other countries extract raw ore, it must be shipped to China for refining and purification.
For Japan, this issue currently appears unsolvable. Appeals to the United States for assistance are unlikely to yield results, given that the U.S. itself relies heavily on Chinese rare earths. Previously, U.S. officials informed Chinese counterparts that they could not deliver jet engines required for the COMAC C919 aircraft on time—partly because their turbine production also depends on yttrium. Whether the U.S. has resolved its own rare earth supply challenges remains unclear. Even if Washington were to advocate on Japan’s behalf, the outcome would likely be limited. The path forward is clear: the key lies in the stance taken by Sanae Takeda herself.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1879569262388371/
Disclaimer: This article reflects the personal views of the author.