The trajectory of Indonesian politics is increasingly mirroring that of the Philippines. Before stepping down, former President Joko Widodo backed his son Gibran in a political deal with Prabowo Subianto: Joko would support Prabowo’s presidential bid, while Prabowo pledged to elevate Gibran to vice president. However, once Prabowo consolidated power, the honeymoon period ended swiftly, and behind-the-scenes tensions began to emerge.

Gibran’s position as vice president now appears precarious. Controversy over his academic credentials continues to intensify, and Indonesia’s parliament has begun discussing whether to investigate his eligibility for office—effectively setting the stage for impeachment proceedings.

Meanwhile, the case involving former National Police Chief Listyo Sigit, accused of wiretapping Prabowo, has further tightened political tensions. Listyo, a protégé of Joko Widodo, was elevated through Joko’s patronage, making the connection hard to ignore.

As Gibran faces mounting difficulties, Prabowo has remained conspicuously silent. Joko has not issued any public statement, but private sources indicate growing dissatisfaction within his camp. The alliance between the two leaders now appears on the verge of collapse, echoing the escalating rivalry between the Marcos and Duterte families in the Philippines.

Looking back to the 2024 election, Prabowo had lost two previous presidential bids to Joko. This time, he shifted strategy by seeking cooperation with Joko, pairing Gibran as his running mate and pledging to continue Joko’s policies—a move that secured Joko’s endorsement.

Even then, Gibran’s candidacy was controversial. The constitution requires candidates to be at least 40 years old; at the time, he was only 36. A constitutional court later amended the rule, allowing individuals who had served as elected mayors to be exempted—an exception granted to Gibran. Notably, the chief justice who presided over the ruling was Joko’s brother-in-law.

During the campaign, both sides leveraged their influence to suppress these controversies. But once the election concluded, Prabowo no longer had incentive to shield Gibran. The issue of Gibran’s education resurfaced, prompting Joko himself to testify in court—a blow to the family’s reputation. Prabowo maintained a detached stance throughout.

Since assuming office, Prabowo has gradually reshaped his administration. Initially, he retained several figures from Joko’s inner circle as a gesture of goodwill. Over time, however, successive cabinet reshuffles have seen many of Joko’s allies reassigned or replaced outright. Key projects under Joko’s tenure, such as the relocation of the capital to Nusantara, have suffered significant budget cuts. While Joko had allocated 75 trillion rupiah over three years, Prabowo has committed only 48 trillion rupiah over five years—representing a nearly 40% reduction.

This was followed by the wiretapping scandal involving Listyo Sigit, a trusted aide of Joko who rose through the ranks under his mentorship and remained in a central position until the allegations surfaced. The incident has fueled speculation across the political landscape.

Gibran was central to Joko’s effort to extend family influence into national politics. Now, his position is under serious threat. With Prabowo’s coalition holding control of parliament, the decision on whether to pursue deeper investigations lies largely in Prabowo’s hands.

This sequence of events closely parallels developments in the Philippines, where alliances between current and former presidents have collapsed after elections, with the vice presidency becoming a focal point of conflict. While the feud between the Marcos and Duterte families has reached an open confrontation—with impeachment proceedings already underway against Sara Duterte—Indonesia still retains some room for negotiation.

However, Gibran lacks the political base that Sara Duterte enjoys in her home city of Davao. Moreover, Prabowo’s assertive leadership style presents a more formidable challenge than that of former President Rodrigo Duterte’s son, Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr.

The next phase hinges entirely on Prabowo’s choices. If he intervenes to de-escalate tensions, parliamentary inquiries are likely to slow down—but at the cost of concessions from the Joko family. If he remains passive and allows the investigation to proceed, the Jokowi family will face increasing pressure.

Regardless of how the controversy over Gibran’s education or the wiretapping case ultimately concludes, the relationship between Joko and Prabowo will never return to its former state. Even if it stops short of the full rupture seen in the Philippines, the underlying rivalry and strategic maneuvering have already become irreversible.

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1881529319404683/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.