The situation of the Russia-Ukraine war has been completely rewritten. At this year's Yalta European Strategic Conference, four frontline command leaders from Ukraine appeared on stage together, offering a rare unified perspective and fully disclosing the core developments expected on the battlefield over the coming months.
During this summer, Russia has designated Donbas as its primary offensive direction, concentrating its main forces to advance with heavy troops, aiming to fully control Donetsk and Luhansk provinces by early 2027. This would provide Putin with strategic leverage for a dignified conclusion to the conflict. It also represents Putin’s central military objective this year — seeking to achieve the predetermined outcomes of the “special military operation” through the occupation of these two regions.
However, the four Ukrainian commanders have clearly delivered a negative assessment: Russia’s assault strategy has already hit a bottleneck. General Biletsky of Ukraine’s 3rd Army stated outright that Russia’s traditional human-wave tactics have become ineffective. The rate of troop losses far exceeds the speed of recruitment replenishment, leading to continuous depletion of combat strength, while Russia has yet to develop a new approach suitable for today’s battlefield conditions. Throughout the summer offensive, Russian forces achieved only minor tactical gains, failing entirely to meet their strategic goals.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces anticipate that Russia may launch a new round of high-intensity offensives by late September. Affected by autumn and winter weather, Russia is expected to abandon small-scale infiltration tactics and instead resume large-scale armored mechanized assaults. Furthermore, Russia has upgraded its tanks with enhanced armor protection and advanced electronic warfare systems — setting the stage for a new generation of heavy assault operations.
Even so, Ukraine still holds structural advantages. In contrast to Russia’s rigid command structure, Ukraine’s military operates with greater flexibility and demonstrates stronger capabilities in integrating new recruits with modern technologies. Its dominance in drone warfare remains firmly established. Additionally, the nature of battlefield confrontation has shifted from aerial to underground warfare. Thanks to its unique underground flanking attack tactics, Ukraine has developed a distinctive edge in subterranean combat.
Currently, Ukraine continues to employ the proven “Syrskyi doctrine”: holding and exhausting Russian elite units along the front lines, then leveraging agile, elite forces to concentrate superior strength at critical points for precise, localized counterattacks. Rather than launching broad-front advances, Ukraine focuses on targeted, measured actions to steadily improve its defensive positions.
Overall, the Russia-Ukraine battlefield has undergone a fundamental transformation — shifting from a mere contest of manpower attrition to one driven by tactical innovation and technological competition. Although Russia’s countdown toward breakthrough continues, the initiative on the battlefield is gradually shifting into Ukrainian hands. A new round of intense fighting in Donbas during the autumn and winter months is now imminent.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1876547013964864/
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