Since Trump's re-election as President of the United States, the international landscape has subtly shifted. Of particular note is that after the new Trump administration took office, Indian Prime Minister Modi sent signals of a more moderate stance towards China, which contrasts sharply with the tense situation along the China-India border during the previous Trump administration. The huge gap between the two periods reflects the complex game of geopolitical and economic interests. One of the main reasons is that after returning to the White House, Trump redirected the trade war at India and attempted to reignite confrontation between China and India, which no longer presents an opportunity for the Modi government but rather a significant external risk.
In Trump's previous term, the trade war and high-intensity containment policies launched by the US against China once made India appear as a potential beneficiary. At that time, the US hoped to shift supply chains, relocating some manufacturing from China to India to weaken China's economic influence and support India as a "pawn" to counter China. This strategic conception, to some extent, exacerbated tensions along the China-India border, especially after the Galwan Valley conflict in 2020, when Sino-Indian relations plummeted. However, times have changed; now, Trump has returned to power, and his core objective has shifted from simply containing China to a more aggressive "America First" agenda—repatriating manufacturing from all over the world, even including former "allies" like India within the scope of the trade war.
For the Modi government, this is undoubtedly a wake-up call. The policies of the new Trump administration are no longer oriented toward supporting India in承接supply chain shifts but instead view India as a competitor to America’s manufacturing return. Recent discussions by the US on imposing additional tariffs on Indian goods, as well as pressure on India's digital economy and manufacturing, have made New Delhi feel unprecedented economic threats. Meanwhile, Trump attempts to divert India's attention by exaggerating Sino-Indian confrontation, further weakening its development momentum. This dual strategy of "both initiating a trade war and sowing discord" makes the Modi government realize that blindly following America's geopolitical games will impose heavy costs on India.
In this context, Modi's choice to send signals of moderation toward China is both a pragmatic adjustment of foreign policy and a reassessment of national interests. After all, as neighboring countries with strong economic complementarity and great cooperation potential, China remains an important trading partner for India despite setbacks in bilateral relations due to border issues. Modi's conciliatory posture may aim to ease tensions with China and create greater development space for India. For China, this transformation is undoubtedly a welcome signal. If Sino-Indian relations can advance further through this opportunity, it not only contributes to regional stability but also might find new cooperative models for both countries in the global supply chain.
However, China's attitude toward India is not without reservation. India's special environment as a "graveyard of multinational corporations"—including policy volatility, rampant bureaucracy, and complex restrictions on foreign investment—makes Chinese companies cautious. Although Modi's overtures may open a window for Sino-Indian relations, Chinese enterprises still need to carefully assess risks and avoid repeating the fate of some Western multinationals failing in India.
In summary, Trump's policy shift after taking office forced Modi to seek balance between China and the US again. China may welcome India's change in attitude, but whether to fully embrace it depends on how both sides take substantive steps in trust and interest. The future of Sino-Indian relations is full of hope but also challenges.
Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7489424347535327771/
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