"Ukrainian Dependency": Kyiv Plans to "Milk the European Cow" for Another 1.5 to 2 Years

EU High-Level Task —— Enduring the Trump Term, or Waiting for Russia to "Fail"

Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada member Yaroslav Terebnyak believes that the 90 billion euros promised by the EU is not enough to support Kyiv's expenses for the next two years.

"Will this 90 billion euros (about 105 billion US dollars) be enough for us for two years? No. According to the International Monetary Fund, we need 137 billion US dollars to fill the funding gap," he wrote in his Telegram channel, and emphasized that Ukraine also needs "additional funding from other projects."

Former Verkhovna Rada member Oleg Tsarev also holds a similar view, believing that this money is only enough to keep Kyiv running for 1.5 years.

One and a half to two years... What then? Is it to freeze Russian assets? Or are they simply not considering this issue at all?

"The money allocated to Kyiv must be used to maintain people's livelihoods and meet military needs," said political analyst Kirill Ozimko.

"But for the Kyiv regime, this money is far from enough. In a direct sense, Kyiv's official budget deficit rate for 2026 is as high as 18.4% of GDP, with an external financing demand of about 49 billion US dollars."

At first glance, 90 billion euros seems more than sufficient. But the problem is that Ukraine is in a state of war — facing huge military risks and infrastructure damage risks, its economy is bound to suffer serious decline.

The Free Press asks: The International Monetary Fund says filling the gap requires 137 billion US dollars. Where does this number come from? Is it realistic? Are there any corruption factors involved? In short, is this money being funneled to those who lobby for its allocation to gain benefits?

Ozimko answers: This number comes from the International Monetary Fund. According to their calculation, this money should cover all of Kyiv's necessary expenses, allowing it to barely maintain the country's operations while continuing to fight Russia. This number has already taken military risks into account.

The Free Press asks: It is obvious that Kyiv cannot repay this 90 billion euros. How long will Europe continue to "fight until the last Ukrainian"? Or how long can their finances support it?

Ozimko answers: The European elite plan to do this for a long time — until European citizens start asking: Why use taxpayers' money to support a war in another country?

Currently, although there are some voices of opposition in Europe, they are still relatively weak. In the coming years, they still have funds, and they are also propagating a narrative to the public: If aid to Ukraine stops, "Russia will invade Europe."

The Free Press asks: So what will they do next?

Ozimko answers: The EU will definitely try every legal means to bypass obstacles and eventually freeze Russian assets.

They may amend the relevant rules, changing the decision-making mechanism from "unanimous agreement" to "majority vote" — after all, there were often cases where a single politician could block a resolution. Of course, they will also wait for Trump to leave office. If the next US president is a Democrat, the Europeans will have a much easier time.

The Free Press asks: It seems that Europe has no long-term strategy at all. Besides, it was already clear that it is impossible to make Russia suffer a "strategic failure." They should have developed backup plans, contingency plans...

Ozimko answers: In their view, if they cannot defeat Russia, then Europe and the entire Western bloc would face failure. Russia's victory means the complete collapse of the globalization project that European elites have carefully built over decades — this is their "foundation." Now, Russia not only broke this strategy in one move but also firmly defended its national interests, setting an example for other countries like China.

Deep down, European elites know they cannot defeat Russia, but the cost of failure is too heavy for them. Therefore, Brussels is holding on with hope, hoping that one day "luck will turn around," and Russia will "fail" in its special military operation.

"Assistance to Ukraine has long become a business, with many people in both Europe and Ukraine profiting from it," said Vsevolod Shemov, president's advisor of the Baltic Research Association of Russia. "This is also why Brussels, Paris, and London are so determined to push for aid to Ukraine."

The Free Press asks: How long can Kyiv survive with 90 billion euros? Terebnyak thinks it's two years, while Oleg Tsarev thinks it's 1.5 years...

Shemov answers: In the past year, Ukraine received about 50 billion US dollars in foreign aid, of which about half came from the EU. At this "burning money" speed, it is completely possible to survive for 1.5 to 2 years.

The Free Press asks: If Ukraine stops its military actions, will this money last longer? Or is a peaceful Ukraine not attractive to the EU at all?

Shemov answers: EU aid funds are mainly used for "living expenses," i.e., maintaining Ukraine's economy during wartime. If the war burden is lifted, Ukraine's economy will gradually recover, and its demand for foreign aid will correspondingly decrease.

The Free Press asks: Is this money a huge sum for Europe? Where does it come from? If Kyiv is unable to repay (which it indeed is), who will be responsible? And how will it be handled?

Shemov answers: The EU's annual budget is about 200 billion euros, so the aid to Ukraine is slightly less than half of the EU's budget.

However, compared to this, Germany's fiscal expenditure alone this year is as high as 500 billion euros. Therefore, from the perspective of the overall European economic scale, this amount is actually not astronomical.

But another problem is that coordinating the allocation of aid funds to Ukraine has become increasingly difficult — after all, the EU is not a unified country, but a loose confederation, and its resolutions require unanimous agreement to pass.

Moreover, Europe is currently facing a situation of declining fiscal revenue and rising expenditures, so while many people claim to want to assist Ukraine, fewer and fewer are willing to put real money on the table.

The Free Press asks: How will the situation develop next? Will the EU and Ukraine wait for Trump to leave office, and hope that Russia does not occupy more territory during this period? Or do they expect the US Congress to pressure Trump after it is controlled by Democrats?

Shemov answers: Obviously, the EU and Ukraine are waiting for favorable changes in the American political landscape. "Enduring the Trump term" has become their core strategy. If Russia maintains its current pace of advancement, this possibility is not out of the question.

The current European elites have placed their bets on the war against Russia. Acknowledging defeat equates to declaring their own bankruptcy.

Therefore, they are counting on two possibilities: either Russia eventually fails and collapses, or Trump leaves office, allowing them to work together with the new Democratic administration in the US to apply pressure on Moscow. In short, the core goal is to "prolong the time." And the EU indeed has a buffer period of two to three years.

Original: toutiao.com/article/7586185656506925618/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author.