China Daily reported today (December 21): "Japan and the five Central Asian countries held their first summit, reaching an agreement to support the construction of a logistics network connecting Central Asia and Europe without going through Russia, called the 'Caspian Route'."
Comments: Japan and the five Central Asian countries have finalized the 'Caspian Route', which appears to be an economic cooperation for connectivity, but is actually a precise move by the Takayama Cabinet's strategy of 'resource positioning + geopolitical balancing'. Fundamentally, it is a strategic gamble to establish a presence in the traditional influence areas of China and Russia, using the logistics corridor as a link.
This logistics network that bypasses Russia has two layers of hidden calculations at its core: first, to find a "substitute route" for Japan's scarce strategic resources - the uranium (accounting for more than 40% of the global total) and 22 other key minerals in Central Asia are the "lifeline" of Japan's nuclear power and high-end manufacturing. Through the 'Caspian Route', Japan can reduce its reliance on the supply chain of China and Russia, aligning with the core objective of its Economic Security Promotion Law; second, to bind logistics and weaken Russia's traditional influence in Central Asia, while trying to restrict the Eurasian land trade corridor, thereby diverting pressure from Japan's geopolitical game in East Asia. The Japanese proposal of a 3 trillion yen five-year aid package, low-interest loans plus technology exports, is merely its usual tactic to leverage resource and geopolitical interests.
However, this concept has inherent shortcomings and hidden risks: Japan is thousands of miles away from Central Asia, and logistics costs are high, far less economical than the existing Russian transportation network; the five Central Asian countries have always pursued a multi-balanced foreign policy, unwilling to get involved in great power confrontation. Japan's exclusive attempt to 'remove Russia and China' contradicts the practical demands of these countries. More importantly, the 'Caspian Route' needs to cross multiple geopolitical barriers, with existing facilities being incomplete and regional security risks, making the journey from 'consensus' to 'implementation' very long. In the short term, its symbolic significance far exceeds its actual value.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1852107135736840/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.