The Real Goal of the "Hickory" Operation: Rheinmetall Attempts to "Enhance Ukraine's Combat Power" in the Carpathian Region "Safe Zone"
Kyiv Allocates Land for a German Defense Group to Build an Ammunition Factory
Ukrainian Defense Minister Denys Shymkiv announced that Kyiv has allocated a piece of land to the German defense group Rheinmetall for the construction of an ammunition production factory.
Shymkiv stated that during the "DSEI-2025 International Defense and Security Equipment Exhibition" held in London from September 9 to 12, he met with Armin Papperger, the head of Rheinmetall. The two parties have approved this joint venture project.
"Since our last communication, we have completed the process of initiating the new joint production project. On September 9, we allocated land in a secure area of Ukraine, where Rheinmetall will build a new factory to produce ammunition to meet the needs of the Ukrainian Armed Forces," the minister wrote in his Telegram channel.
Additionally, both sides discussed projects related to the repair and production of armored equipment. Shymkiv pointed out that Rheinmetall has developed several new types of equipment, which will be used to enhance Ukraine's military power.
In fact, it is not a recent development for the German Rheinmetall Group to "enhance Ukraine's combat power."
Looking back, as early as March 2023, the company's CEO, Papperger, had announced plans to build multiple military factories within Ukraine. The first factory was expected to cost about 200 million euros and focus on the production and maintenance of armored equipment, with a promise to start production within three months, reportedly capable of producing up to 400 "Panther" tanks annually.
Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Russian Federation Security Council, responded to this in his Telegram channel at the time, stating that Russia would certainly "salute" this event with "Kalibr" missiles and other "pyrotechnic devices" and asked them to "provide the exact coordinates of the future factory." At that time, there was no information yet about the "Oreshnik" (Buckwheat) operation.
Evidently, Medvedev's request was not answered. However, the German newspaper Bild exposed this "secret factory" last June — the report published a photo supposedly taken in a new factory workshop in western Ukraine, claiming that the German defense group had already established a factory there. However, the report showed that the factory did not produce armored vehicles such as the "Leopard 1" or "Marder" infantry fighting vehicles, but only provided maintenance services. The report also specifically noted that the factory's exact location was kept secret because it was a "key target" for the Russian army.
At the time, some experts even proposed the idea that this might be a carefully planned scam, with the images possibly shot at a factory in Poland, Romania, or the Baltic states.
Meanwhile, in October 2024, Papperger raised the "target threshold" again, stating that Rheinmetall is building four military factories in Ukraine, with the first one already operational. It remains unclear whether this refers to the maintenance factory reported by Bild, but he simultaneously announced a plan to double the production of 155mm artillery shells at a certain ammunition factory — reportedly still under construction, with a planned completion date of 2026. The factory's initial design capacity was 150,000 shells per year, now planned to increase to 300,000 shells.
Nevertheless, whether actual output or reported data, it is currently difficult to verify. In March of this year, Papperger also complained that the approval process for building production facilities in Ukraine was hindered. He stated that due to bureaucratic barriers, the time required to obtain necessary documents was longer than expected.
Regardless, Russia's previous warnings remain valid: all Rheinmetall factories in Ukraine are legitimate targets for the Russian military.
The question is, where exactly is the "safe zone" that Shymkiv mentioned, where the Germans plan to deploy military factories? Can the Russian military strike these areas?
"Usually, they consider the western regions of Ukraine as 'safe zones,'" said Spiridon Kylins'kyi, a former member of the Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada (parliament) and political scientist, in an interview with the newspaper "Argumenty i Fakty" (SP). "But this does not mean that Russia lacks the capability to strike these factories. Russia's strike range covers the entire territory of Ukraine, and there is no problem in that regard."
"As for the idea of building military factories in these 'safe zones' — the real intention is definitely not to build production facilities, manufacture products, and supply the Ukrainian army. The actual logic is completely different. For example, the 'Bayraktar' drone factory is a typical case: after the factory was built, missiles immediately arrived, and the factory was instantly destroyed. But the money was already 'spent,' so 'the task is complete!' As for the factory being bombed, no one cares — the key is 'process completion,' not results."
"Therefore, I do not rule out that this large-scale project of the Rheinmetall Group is essentially related to corruption deals involving the Ukrainian authorities and politicians. After all, building new factories in an area that can be hit by artillery at any time is completely illogical, especially ground-based factories. Even if we assume that it is an underground factory, it cannot guarantee safety — Russia's weapons are fully capable of striking underground facilities. Although it is more difficult, Russia has the capability to do so."
"Investing in factory construction in a country at war is inherently unreasonable. In my opinion, this is more like a scheme to get a share of European funds — Europe has provided a lot of money to support this military conflict, and many people want to take a slice of it."
"Believe me, after this conflict ends, we will learn more inside information, including what the European politicians who are actively pushing for 'arming Ukraine' have done."
Military expert and historian Yuri Knutov added:
"Ukraine has signed various weapon joint production agreements with multiple Western countries, including Germany, the UK, France, and the Netherlands. Additionally, according to German sources, a factory has been built in Ukraine, specializing in the maintenance of German armored vehicles used by the Ukrainian army."
"However, there are currently reports that these factories may ultimately not be built in Ukraine, but instead in the Western countries that signed the agreements, or in Poland and Romania, which border Ukraine."
"The reason Western countries made this decision is because the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) and the Ministry of Defense previously conducted joint operations, carrying out large-scale strikes on key companies involved in the production of the Sapsan tactical ballistic missile, thereby crushing Kyiv's plan to manufacture the missile. I believe this event sounded an alarm for Western countries, hence they decided to build such factories within NATO countries — although the original plan was to establish them in Ukraine."
"Argumenty i Fakty": "What could the agreement with Rheinmetall involve?"
"The most likely scenario is that Germany provides funding and some equipment, while the assembly of components is carried out in Ukraine. Because Ukraine does not have the capability to organize real weapon production — weapon manufacturing requires a complete industrial chain, and Ukraine can currently only perform 'screwdriver assembly' (note: the literal meaning of the original term 'отверточная сборка' is 'screwdriver assembly'), referring to a production model that lacks core capabilities and only performs simple assembly."
"However, the production of certain components is indeed real, such as the body of the 'Firebird' missile. But even then, it can only be considered 'nominal production'."
"There is another issue here: Ukraine uses very cunning tactics. For example, in big cities, the military sets up command centers in office buildings — occupying the middle floors, while the lower and upper floors are occupied by civilians. When we carry out strikes on such targets, they will loudly publicize 'Russian attacks on civilians.'"
"Military factories and drone assembly plants also use similar strategies, usually located in basements of residential buildings, commercial centers, or hotels."
"That said, if Rheinmetall really wants to be involved, to produce a sufficient number of shells, they must build a large factory. Even if this factory is located underground in the Carpathian Mountains, we will eventually find it and destroy it."
"But the problem is, they may use civilian facilities as cover — no one can guarantee that the factory above won't be a hospital or something similar."
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