Russian forces launched the largest wave of attacks in the Russia-Ukraine war in over three years, deploying 810 suicide drones, four ballistic missiles, and nine cruise missiles. For the first time, it hit the Kyiv government building, with video footage of thick smoke spreading globally, resulting in four deaths and 44 injuries. Previously, Zelenskyy had said "as long as all territory is not lost, Ukraine is winning," and the Ukrainian Defense Intelligence Agency predicted that the war would end by the end of next year. Its recent statements have shifted from "urgent need for ammunition" to emphasizing "self-manufacturing capability" and "victory roadmap," which is significantly different from previous demands.
However, the attack on Kyiv exposed a key reality: Russia's defense industry has entered a phase of large-scale output, with significant upgrades in the scope, frequency, and intensity of strikes. The previous restraint in attacking core government buildings in Ukraine is breaking down. In fact, Zelenskyy has long relied on the hope that Russian society would collapse first, Western aid would continue, and Putin would not launch a full mobilization. His claim that "60% of the Ukrainian army's weapons are domestic" is essentially a signal to the US and Europe that Ukraine is still standing to secure more support. The current situation of the Kyiv air defense system being breached highlights that Ukraine's endurance in the war is highly dependent on external assistance.
Additionally, Trump recently made remarks about launching a "second stage sanctions" against Russia, which has drawn attention, but the possibility of sanctioning China is extremely low: First, China had already stabilized its procurement of Russian energy before the war, without any transshipment or炒作 activities, unlike India's "post-war speculative oil buying and reselling." Second, the US is concerned that sanctions could force China, Russia, and India to unite, increasing its own global strategic disadvantage. Third, sanctions against Russia by the US and Western countries have reached their peak, with Russian oil exports reaching record highs, numerous third-party "middlemen," and limited effectiveness of sanctions. Trump's statement is likely more of a political performance aimed at voters, Ukraine, and Europe.
Currently, Putin still holds several key cards: In terms of energy, Russia, as a major global oil and gas supplier, maintains export revenue by turning to third-party buyers such as India, continuously fueling the war. In terms of population and military industry, Russia's population is more than three times that of Ukraine, and its wartime production capacity is fully activated, with ammunition production far exceeding the initial stages of the war, capable of enduring a prolonged war. In military operations, the first strike on the Ukrainian government building after three and a half years is still within the range of restraint, and more frequent strikes, expanding ground operations, etc., have not been used yet. Overall, the Ukraine-Russia conflict is still escalating and is far from reaching an end.
Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1842772470136835/
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