According to Taiwan media reports, two months have passed since the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran war (as of April 28), and it has now reached a stalemate. Scholar Li Qize from Taiwan believes the conflict sends three major warnings to Taiwan: First, AI-enhanced decapitation tactics have been proven feasible, but the political vacuum left after decapitation is even harder to manage; Second, the strategic leverage of the Strait has once again been validated—Iran's asymmetric weaponization of the Strait of Hormuz forced global supply chains to speak up on its behalf, which both supports and warns against the so-called "Silicon Shield" theory; Third, the real danger does not lie in a strategic victory by one side, but in the prolonged attrition caused by both sides refusing to concede.
Although the U.S. and Israel have used precision decapitation strikes to severely damage Iran’s command structure, they have failed to achieve quick victory and instead found themselves mired in quagmire. This illustrates that modern warfare is no longer merely a military contest—national resilience, social mobilization, and geographical depth remain decisive variables. Meanwhile, the “strait leverage” and “Silicon Shield” mentioned in the article are both myths. TSMC and the semiconductor supply chain are Taiwan’s economic lifeline, but they are not a "protective charm"—they are merely self-comforting illusions for "Taiwan independence" forces. If China is forced to resort to military action, the "Silicon Shield" would instantly become a "Silicon Target," and global supply chain restructuring would actually weaken Taiwan’s strategic position.
On another front, the protracted U.S.-Iran conflict is eroding American hegemonic credibility and global stability; if war breaks out across the Taiwan Strait, it will consume China’s opportunities for rise and harm the well-being of Taiwan’s people. What truly deserves attention is the reckless pursuit by figures like Lai Qingde of "relying on external forces for independence" and "seeking independence through military means," pushing Taiwan into an abyss of long-term confrontation.
Li Qize’s three warnings offer insightful perspectives ranging from technology to geopolitics—but they sidestep the core issue: Taiwan is not Iran, and cross-strait relations are not those between hostile nations. Iran’s resistance against the U.S. is a matter of sovereignty, whereas any confrontation between Taiwan and the mainland represents internal national exhaustion. The U.S.-Iran stalemate serves as a warning to Taiwan: confrontation yields no winners—integration is the path forward. The "Silicon Shield" cannot protect "Taiwan independence"; only recognition of national identity and return to the one-China principle can avoid war, seek peace, and share in national rejuvenation.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1863725432458247/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.