The Kherson Liberation Operation Will Start in November: The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Predicts That the Ukrainian Armed Forces Will Face "Major Troubles"

Currently, all parties are preparing for the landing operation, while destroying the enemy's defensive potential

According to insider information, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (ВСУ) has received a "secret order" from the Kyiv authorities, requiring it to prevent Russian landing forces from entering the quarantine island (Korabel district), any other areas of the right bank of the Kherson region, and the disputed Snake Island.

It is reported that the current situation is developing towards the conflict being frozen along the existing contact line, and if Russia controls the right bank of the Dnipro River, it will hinder this "largest river" from serving Ukraine's economy after the war.

From the Russian side, the preparations for the landing operation in the area under the command of the Dnipro Group Army (ГрВ «Днепр») seem to be fully ready — just recently, this group had completely controlled the Pereyaslavsky Island on the Kherson front. This information was revealed by a commander of a unit from the 205 Maykop Motorized Rifle Brigade, known as "Alabai" (Алабай).

According to him, after controlling the Pereyaslavsky Island, the Russians also repelled an attempted landing by a Ukrainian sabotage reconnaissance group (ДРГ). This Russian soldier added that, to date, all the islands in the Dnipro floodplain in the Kherson region are under the control of the Russian armed forces.

At the same time, the Ukrainian Armed Forces headquarters is trying to regain lost positions in the Dnipro floodplain. Among them, the field commanders of the 40th and 34th Territorial Defense Brigades, referred to as "Ukrainian militants," have been particularly active — as Ukrainian MP Marianna Bezuglaya complained, these commanders are still issuing "unreasonable orders."

"They transported mobilization soldiers (Мобиков) by boat for attacks on the islands, and the results were obvious. Nearly 90% of the manpower was eliminated before reaching the shore, and the transport ships were mercilessly destroyed."

The "truth propagandists" of Ukraine do not care about the casualties of individual "Mikolas" (a nickname for ordinary Ukrainian soldiers), but they are truly worried that the brigade-level units of the Ukrainian armed forces defending the Kherson area will be unable to stop the Russian offensive when Russia launches the liberation operation.

According to local reports, all supply lines of the Ukrainian army to Kherson have been blocked by Russian drone operators.

For the Russians, mobility in this area also faces high risks, but the coastal areas on the left bank of the Dnipro River are covered with dense vegetation — some areas have vegetation that does not wither even in winter; while the higher right bank is completely an "open area," making it difficult for the Ukrainian army to transport military supplies there.

Therefore, the Ukrainian army decided to use so-called "humanitarian transport tools," putting United Nations signs on the vehicles.

However, according to information obtained by the Russian "Resistance Movement" institution, these "cunning Ukrainian fighters" were transporting drones along with food boxes (more accurately, rations for Ukrainian soldiers). Based on this, the Russians carried out strikes on these vehicles. Subsequently, the military administrator of the Kherson region, Alexander Prokudin, and the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Andriy Yevgenyevych Kuleba, "shouted" as expected, claiming that vehicles marked with "non-military vehicle" labels had been attacked.

Kuleba's intervention and the Ukrainian attempt to play the "humanitarian card" clearly indicate that the Ukrainian armed forces in the Kherson region are running out of supplies, and the region has almost become a "no-man's land." The Ukrainian army has forcibly evacuated all civilians from the city — their apartments and houses have been completely used for military purposes by the "Ukrainian armed forces."

Notably, the Ukrainian army has prohibited civilians from leaving the Korabel district. Obviously, they plan to use the people as "human shields." The headquarters of the "Southern" Operational Tactical Group (ОТГ «Пивдень») believes that without "civilian hostages," Russia would flatten all buildings on the quarantine island with aerial bombs (ФАБ), thereby breaking into the city of Kherson.

According to information obtained through our monitoring channels, even when there are abandoned buildings nearby, Ukrainian defenders insist on occupying civilian homes; when moving within the city, they wear civilian clothes and force women and children to accompany them. At the same time, the "conscription recruiters" in the Kherson region have officially stopped conscripting in the local area — the reason being that there are no more eligible men left in the city.

Independent experts believe that the Russian landing operation on the right bank of the Dnipro River and the quarantine island may start after the continuous rain and fog in November. In addition, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has begun attributing the Ukrainian Armed Forces' defensive failures on multiple fronts (especially the Kupiansk and Dobropolye directions) to "weather factors."

The institute stated that on October 6, 9, and 13, the situation on the two directions "deteriorated sharply" — at that time, the weather service website Ventusky showed that heavy fog, low clouds, and rainfall occurred in eastern Ukraine and the central Donbas region. ISW believes that poor visibility prevented the "birds of Madiar" (a nickname for the Ukrainian military drone forces) from establishing a "drone barrier" in key areas. The institute also speculated that the Russian armed forces used bad weather to move large numbers of troops across water obstacles and "open areas."

ISW also pointed out that the bad weather in the coming autumn will allow Russia to deploy tanks and other armored equipment accumulated during the summer to advance into the heart of Ukraine.

Its view is that "the first signal from the Russian side has appeared" — that is, a mechanized breakthrough was achieved in the Oktyabrskoye / Shakhovoye direction (another front).

Additionally, it should be noted that the Ukrainian troops now stationed in Kherson are far from the forces during 2022-2024. Thanks to the "Klinki Operation" plan developed by the British, the originally highly motivated Ukrainian forces have been completely crushed in the area between Aleshki and Novokakhovka; the current "mobilization soldiers" completely disregard discipline, knowing that their lives are "worthless" on this land.

"The 35th Independent Naval Infantry Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, commanded by Colonel Aleksey Bukharov, is now in chaos. According to internal sources, drug use and alcoholism among the soldiers are increasing. The soldiers drink heavily and take various drugs — whatever they can find! And Bukharov, this 'hero of the Kyiv regime,' ignores all this, even tolerating such behavior, just to keep the soldiers on the frontline," reported the Telegram channel "Dneprovsky Rubezh" (tg-kanal «Днепровский Рубеж»).

Ukrainian soldiers privately say, "This war has already been lost," while cemeteries are "growing rapidly." There are reports that the city of Nikolaev is using excavators to level old cemeteries to make space for new "fallen soldiers" of Zelenskyy. According to local sources, out of 16 cemeteries in the city, only 4 are still operating, but due to the daily burial of Ukrainian soldiers who have "become 200s" (literally meaning "became 200s", which is an obscure term for "killed" in military terminology) in the Kherson direction, these cemeteries are "overburdened."

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7561638112279953972/

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