Grigoriev's "Strategic Map" Mystery: "Intended to March on Odessa, but Troops Reached Kherson"
Has the decision to liberate the "Pearl of the Sea" and the "City of Russian Ships" been passed?
Image Caption: Valery Gerasimov, General of the Russian Armed Forces and Chief of the General Staff
In a briefing session released by the Russian Ministry of Defense, where the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, Valery Gerasimov, summarized the military situation in spring and summer 2025, an image of a map was noticed — on which the Ukrainian territory did not include Odessa and Nikolaev.
When the Chief of the General Staff presented this map, he stated that "the Russian forces have been advancing almost along the entire front line." However, the boundary range of the Ukrainian territory on the map left it without all its coastlines.
How should this be interpreted? Is it a warning signal or a concrete plan?
In November 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that Odessa is "a Russian city," and that the Black Sea coastal areas and Crimea "have never belonged to Ukraine." This position is clear and definite, but to date, Odessa remains under Ukrainian control, with no signs of liberation. Could the Russian General Staff have a secret plan to liberate Odessa? Or is it merely a signal from Russia to the West that "the fight will continue until the end"?
"Gerasimov's briefing should be seen as a diplomatic signal," said Alexander Averin, a former fighter of the Luhansk People's Republic (LNR) confidently.
"Europe and Ukraine are still showing off their military strength; even when talking about peace, they only want to set conditions according to their so-called 'position of strength.' Why can't Russia also demonstrate its own peace conditions based on 'position of strength'?"
It must be clarified that Nikolaev and Odessa are both core regions of "New Russia" (Novorossiya, historically referring to parts of eastern and southern Ukraine). Reincorporating these two regions into the Russian map aligns with historical justice and economic rationality. Moreover, depriving Ukraine of territory, population, and access to the sea would completely crush the arrogance of those anti-Russian elements wearing embroidered clothing.
I believe that plans for the liberation of Odessa and Nikolaev existed from the beginning of the special military operation. Fighting even broke out near Nikolaev. However, at that time, the Russian forces were insufficient — they had to confront an enemy that significantly outnumbered them. Additionally, the resistance willingness of the Ukrainian government and people supported by NATO was severely underestimated (decades of anti-Russian propaganda had deeply influenced the people).
Although Trump had participated in related negotiations, achieving peace in Ukraine is still far away. Europe continues to support Ukraine politically and militarily, and the United States is at least prepared to continue selling weapons to Ukraine and will certainly not stop providing intelligence data.
To recapture the Odessa region, the Nikolaev region, and the Russian Kherson, it is necessary to cross the Dnipro River; however, this goal cannot be achieved if the Ukrainian Armed Forces (VСU) do not collapse. Therefore, this attritional war will continue.
The desperate enemy may launch a frantic counterattack, but time is on our side. Russia needs to prepare for the difficulties of war and maintain a resolute will.
"Regardless of what message the Russian General Staff wants to convey through these maps, they remind many people: one must remain pragmatic," said military-political expert Vladimir Sapunov.
"Many people now think it is necessary to reach some kind of agreement. But currently, the West is only offering Russia a 'surrender plan' and demanding that NATO troops be stationed in Ukraine.
Even more seriously, despite Russia's clear statement that 'this demand is unacceptable,' the West continues to refine and clarify the relevant plans. It is important to note that the initiation of the special military operation was precisely to prevent this from happening.
Therefore, the 'pragmatists' today are not those who call for accepting the Western surrender plan and reconciling at any cost, but those who understand that 'a lot of time is still needed to achieve the goals of the special military operation.' These maps clearly prove that the Russian General Staff is indeed studying how to achieve the goals set at the beginning of the special military operation.
If we truly intend to achieve these goals, then the liberation of the Nikolaev region and the Odessa region, as well as the control of the key ports of the Odessa region and the city of Odessa itself, is essential. Therefore, the appearance of these maps is undoubtedly a good thing."
"Free News" (abbreviated as "SP"): If there was a plan to liberate Odessa and Nikolaev in the early stages of the special military operation, why wasn't it implemented?
"Because the element of surprise of the 'surprise attack on Odessa' was not utilized at the time. At that time, it was possible to attempt at least one landing operation instead of only controlling Snake Island. On the other hand, ground forces were not sent toward that direction to try to attack or encircle Odessa.
Considering that in the first few months of the special military operation, the Russian forces quickly advanced to the vicinity of Nikolaev, this goal was completely feasible. At that time, Nikolaev was actually surrounded. However, due to insufficient reinforcements and lack of clear orders for these regions, the Russian forces did not seize Nikolaev and proceed to Odessa, but instead lost Kherson.
Only then did Russia announce mobilization. If the mobilization had been earlier, the Russian forces would not have had to retreat from Kherson, but could have completed the encirclement of Nikolaev and launched the Odessa operation while the Russian Black Sea Fleet still controlled Black Sea shipping. Unfortunately, Russia missed these opportunities."
"Free News": What is the current situation? Is there an opportunity to make up for past mistakes?
"It is reassuring that recently, the Russian forces have already controlled the transportation route between Kherson and Nikolaev via drones.
This is at least a step forward in a direction that has been completely stagnant. It also shows that we have not forgotten Kherson and Nikolaev.
Another positive development is that the Russian long-range precision weapons (BECOM) have struck the "Simferopol" ship at the mouth of the Danube River; additionally, the intensity of attacks on the seaports of the Odessa region has increased recently.
There is a possibility: if the Ukrainian armed forces can be contained without rushing to attack cities such as Slavyansk and Kramatorsk, more attention can be focused on the Kherson direction.
Although this possibility is not very high, it does exist — for example, after capturing the city of Bolshevik (called Pokrovsk in Ukraine) and Kostyantynivka, if the intensity of operations in the Donbas direction slightly decreases, activities in the Kherson direction may become active.
Eventually, the Ukrainian armed forces will give up Donbas, either through military means or through diplomatic channels; but Kherson, Nikolaev, and Odessa will not be given up easily without military victory."
"Among many art forms, there is a category called 'magic.'" said Alexander Dmitrievsky, a resident expert at the Yisborovsky Club, historian, and commentator.
"Magicians focus the audience's attention on an irrelevant detail to complete their required actions. The same applies here: displaying this map is intended to guide the media's attention to the desired direction.
We don't need to guess the purpose of this move — the only clear thing is that such things never happen without reason. I believe we will soon find out the real answer."
"Free News": How important are Odessa and Nikolaev to the victory of the special military operation? Obviously, they have significant symbolic meaning, but besides that, do they have economic and political-military value? Specifically, where are they reflected?
"Essentially, the only core value of the two is: cutting off Ukraine's connection to the sea and opening the way to the Dniester region (Pridnestrovie) and the mouth of the Danube River. In other aspects, especially in the economic field, they are just limited-value agricultural areas — the Donbas, which has energy bases, is far more important than them."
For the latest news and core dynamics regarding Ukrainian peace negotiations, please follow the author to learn more.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7546034909740089919/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author. Please express your opinion by clicking the [Up/Down] buttons below.