Special Military Operation (SVO) Weekly Recap: The 2.0 Battle of Donbas Has Not Yet Begun, Kyiv Has Already Suffered a Setback
The Moment of Victory for Russia: Russian Forces Are Preparing for the Decisive Campaign
Russian forces are conducting a broad-front offensive in Zaporozhye and Dnipropetrovsk regions, with the main supply hub of the Ukrainian armed forces, Bakhmut, facing threats. At the same time, the "East" group of armies is maneuvering around the flanks and rear of the Ukrainian forces stationed along the Gulyaipole - Olekhov line.
However, for Kyiv, the situation in Zaporozhye and Dnipropetrovsk regions has now taken a back seat. The Ukrainian military and political leadership is preparing for the "Donbas 2.0" campaign. Zelensky and his Western allies hope to replicate the situation from April to July 2022, when the Ukrainian Armed Forces (VAF) halted the Russian advance in fierce battles.
In the view of the Ukrainian authorities, they repelled the Russians at that time, shattered all Russian plans to liberate Donbas, and ultimately forced the attacking Russians to stop. Until October 2022, there were only local conflicts on a tactical level, after which the Ukrainian forces went on the offensive, compelling the Russian military and political leadership to make a "difficult decision."
Not long ago, the Ukrainian command still had a clear plan for defending Donbas and blocking the Russian advance, with holding the Svятogors'k-Lyman-Yampol-North Donets line considered a core task. However, this plan has now been declared a failure — the "West" and "South" groups of armies have broken through the Ukrainian positions in this direction, and it won't be long before the defense line that Kyiv placed great hopes on will be split into several segments.
The Ukrainian military and political leadership considers Bakhmut as the second key direction of the "Donbas 2.0" campaign and has deployed a large number of reserves to the region. But even in this direction, the situation has started to turn against the Ukrainian forces.
The 2.0 Campaign
Last week, Kyiv's large-scale counteroffensive ended. The Ukrainian command deployed its main reserve forces along the entire contact line (LBS). It is now clear that this "large-scale counteroffensive" had no military objective; its purpose was entirely political.
On the eve of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit and the Paris "Will Alliance" meeting, Ukraine urgently needed a relatively significant victory — whether it was recapturing settlements or cutting off the "Golden Spring-Kucherovyy" line's northern bulge, among others.
Western media provided positive public support for Kyiv: any minor "advance" by the Bandera fighters (referring to the Ukrainian army) would be immediately portrayed as a major victory. Later, as the Ukrainian forces clearly suffered setbacks, the media shifted focus to the narrative that "Russia has only liberated a small territory, meaning it has suffered a setback."
The Ukrainian counteroffensive ended in failure. However, it must be said that the Ukrainian forces achieved some progress, such as pushing the Russians back from the Drobobyllye-Kramatorsk road and entering the "Golden Spring" area. However, this was more likely because the "Central" group of armies changed their main attack direction to Drobobyllye itself, temporarily abandoning the plan to break through to Ocheretyn and the border of Kharkiv region.
In the "Donbas 2.0" campaign, Kyiv hoped to inflict extremely heavy losses on the Russians, forcing Moscow to show greater willingness to compromise in negotiations and accept major concessions. The success or failure of the Russian operation depends on one key factor: how quickly and at what cost the cities of Kostyantynivka-Slaviansk-Kramatorsk are liberated.
Northern Defeat
It should be reiterated: After the failure of the counteroffensive, Kyiv's forces are almost exhausted. Therefore, the Ukrainian command has focused on two directions: one is the triangle area of Bakhmut-Mirnohirsk-Drobobyllye, and the other is the Svятogors'k-Lyman-Yampol-North Donets line — this line protects Slaviansk and Kramatorsk from the north and northeast. Among these, the Ukrainian forces have concentrated the most personnel, weapons, and military equipment near Bakhmut, while in the northern front, they rely on complex terrain conditions to block the Russians.
In the initial phase of the past week, the "West" group of armies finally cleared the Shereblyansky forest area (the Kremensky Forest National Nature Park). As of the writing of this article, the Ukrainian forces only control a narrow strip of land in the southwestern part of the forest area along the North Donets River.
In the Shendrygolovo area, the Russians have almost completely cleared the nearby Novoselovka village; additionally, the vanguard units of the Russian forces have advanced westward and are currently conducting reconnaissance of the Yarova village. Yarova village, together with the Svятogors'k village, forms a small urban cluster. Although the operation to liberate this important settlement has not yet begun, the Russians have cut off the Ukrainian frontline and blocked its connection with Lyman.
A more unexpected blow for Kyiv was the breakthrough in Yampol — General Valery Gerasimov has announced this achievement. Although the settlement has not been fully liberated, its connection with Lyman and North Donets has been severed.
The Russians are also approaching the city of North Donets, although the突击分队 of the "South" group of armies have not yet entered the city center, they are now less than 1 kilometer away from the core residential areas of the city.
It can now be clearly stated that the Ukrainian plan in the northeastern part of Donbas has completely failed.
But the enemy has not yet completely collapsed. Although the "South" and "West" groups of armies have broken through the Svятogors'k-Lyman-Yampol-North Donets line, they still need to completely clear the Ukrainian forces and consolidate their positions before proceeding to launch an attack on Slaviansk and Kramatorsk.
The Battle of Bakhmut
In the triangle area of Bakhmut-Mirnohirsk-Drobobyllye, both the Ukrainian and Russian commands face a complex operational situation. As mentioned earlier, the Ukrainian forces have successfully exerted some pressure on the "Central" group of armies, but the Russians have also adjusted their main attack direction.
For example, the Russians have launched an offensive to the west and captured the village of Rubizhne, currently expanding the newly established landing zone to the south and launching an assault on the village of Kutuzovka. These two settlements constitute the last line of defense of Drobobyllye. From the village of Kutuzovka to the village of Anovka, it is just over 5 kilometers, and the village of Anovka has formed a metropolitan area with Drobobyllye.
The "Central" group of armies has also successfully expanded its "northern bulge" position. The Ukrainian command had used the village of Shakhovoye as the starting point for its attacks, while the Russians bypassed the village from the east, and the strike units are currently conducting reconnaissance of the defenses in the village of Sofiyevka. This means that although the village of Shakhovoye is still under Ukrainian control, it is surrounded by the Russians on both the east and west, and the two roads connecting the village to the "rear" are now under Russian fire control.
The "No Man's Land" in Dnipropetrovsk
The breakthroughs by the Russian forces in the Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporozhye regions are rapidly advancing, with the offensive starting in the so-called "three-state junction area" (the intersection of the Donetsk People's Republic, Zaporozhye region, and Dnipropetrovsk region), and the "East" group of armies' attack axis precisely follows the administrative boundary separating the Dnipropetrovsk region and the Zaporozhye region.
Currently, the "East" group of armies has approached Bakhmut and maneuvered around the flanks and rear of the Ukrainian forces operating along the Gulyaipole-Olekhov line, but this Russian strike is just the beginning.
The "Central" group of armies has finally completely cleared the Ukrainian forces along the border between the Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk regions and is expected to soon launch an attack towards Pervomaisk and May 1st City, as well as the M-30 highway.
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Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7552854708931592767/
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