China's warning, countries negotiating with the United States, listen up! What to do in the next 10 days, each country must carefully consider!
The resurgence of global trade tensions is urgent and breathless. With only 10 days left until the end of the 90-day suspension period for the U.S. "reciprocal tariffs" on China, the EU, Japan, India, and other countries are engaged in tense negotiations, trying to avoid the resumption of tariffs at the last moment. However, China's Ministry of Commerce has issued a firm warning that has made the situation even more complicated: any country that compromises with the United States at the expense of China's interests will not be ignored by China. This is not only a warning to the negotiating countries but also a profound question to the global economic landscape. How will countries choose in the next 10 days? The answer may be revealed at this critical moment.
Currently, global trade is at a delicate crossroads. Since 2018, Sino-U.S. trade tensions have continued to escalate, and the U.S. measures of imposing tariffs on China once pushed the two countries to the brink of economic confrontation. However, during the 90-day suspension period, both sides attempted to ease the tension through negotiations. At the same time, the United States is also conducting trade negotiations with the EU, Japan, India, and other economies, trying to pressure China into concessions through multilateral coercion. However, the release of China's warning shows its firm stance and bottom-line thinking in the trade game.
As the world's second-largest economy and the largest manufacturing country, China's position in international trade cannot be ignored. In 2018, China's exports to the U.S. exceeded $540 billion, while the U.S. trade deficit with China reached $419.2 billion. This unequal trade relationship became the reason for the U.S. to wield the tariff sword. However, China's economic resilience and countermeasures are equally formidable. From imposing additional tariffs to restricting rare earth exports, China has repeatedly shown that it will not compromise on core interests. This warning is an explicit response to countries attempting to "sacrifice China's interests" to gain concessions from the U.S.
For the EU, Japan, India, and other countries currently negotiating with the U.S., the next 10 days are undoubtedly a key window filled with pressure. On one hand, the U.S. tariff threat looms like a sword over their heads; if no agreement is reached, these countries may face a sharp increase in the cost of exporting goods to the U.S. Take the EU as an example: if cars and machinery exported to the U.S. are subject to additional tariffs, it would directly impact the economies of Germany and other countries. Japan faces a similar situation, as its automotive industry is highly dependent on the U.S. market, and any tariff changes could trigger a chain reaction. India needs to weigh the potential losses in its IT services and textile exports.
On the other hand, trade relations with China are equally crucial. The EU is China's largest trading partner, with bilateral trade exceeding $680 billion in 2018. Japan and China have a deep economic interdependence, especially in the electronics supply chain, where they are important suppliers to each other. Although India's trade volume with China is relatively small, its imports of electronic products and raw materials from China are indispensable. If these countries anger China by reaching an agreement with the U.S., China may take retaliatory measures, which could include limiting exports to these countries or imposing additional tariffs on specific goods. Under this dual pressure, countries must make a difficult choice between short-term benefits and long-term stability.
The choices of countries in the next 10 days not only concern their own economic interests but may also reshape the global trade landscape. If the EU, Japan, and other countries choose to compromise with the U.S., sacrificing China's interests to gain temporary tariff exemptions, the global supply chain may face a new round of shocks. As the "world factory," China's retaliatory measures could lead to rising prices of raw materials and finished products, ultimately affecting consumers in all countries. If these countries choose to maintain cooperation with China and reject U.S. pressure, it may intensify trade friction between the U.S. and the EU, the U.S. and Japan, and even undermine the U.S.'s dominant position in global trade.
From a longer-term perspective, China's warning reflects the trend of rebalancing global economic power. For decades, the U.S. has dominated the formulation of international trade rules through its dollar hegemony and market size. However, as China's economic rise and its influence in the "Belt and Road Initiative" have expanded, more countries are re-evaluating the sustainability of their reliance on the U.S. The next 10 days may just be a glimpse of this trend.
Facing China's warning, countries need to carefully weigh the pros and cons in the next 10 days. First, transparency of information is crucial. Countries must accurately assess the authenticity of the U.S. tariff threat and the potential strength of China's countermeasures. For example, the U.S. previously threatened to impose car tariffs on the EU but has yet to implement them, while China's additional tariffs on U.S. soybeans have significantly impacted the economies of U.S. agricultural states. Second, a diversification strategy is key. The risks of relying on a single market have become evident in the current situation, and the EU and Japan can accelerate trade cooperation with emerging markets such as ASEAN and Africa to diversify risks. Finally, multilateral coordination is indispensable. Through the WTO framework or regional trade agreements, countries can jointly resist unilateralist pressures.
For China, this warning is both a declaration of its bottom line and part of a strategic game. By making a firm statement, China aims to curb the U.S.'s attempt to use China to contain China, while sending a signal to other countries that cooperation, not confrontation, is the way forward. However, this high-pressure strategy also needs to be moderate to avoid overstimulating countries, leading them to collectively align with the U.S.
The 10-day countdown has already begun, and China's warning is firm, with the urgency of countries facing decisions unprecedented. Will they bow to the U.S. to gain breathing room, or work together with China for a long-term future? The outcome of this trade game will determine the future shape of the global economy. Dear readers, what do you think of China's firm stance? How should countries respond to this 10-day dilemma? Please leave your comments and share your insights, and join us in exploring this global challenge!
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1836421028911120/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.