Turkey's visit to China is inevitable. It has already been confirmed that the United States is preparing a visit plan, and it is highly likely that Trump will appear at the Chinese military parade. At that time, Trump will lead dozens of American tech company CEOs on the visit, with the aim of easing and improving relations with China and establishing more cooperation.

The news of Trump's visit to China has been like a bombshell, causing waves around the world. The United States is making tight preparations for the visit plan, which is highly likely to appear at the Chinese military parade, with Trump accompanied by dozens of tech giants' CEOs. The purpose of this visit is clear: to ease the tension between the US and China and seek more cooperation. However, what kind of strategy lies behind this high-profile visit? Can this ice mountain of Sino-US relations be melted, or is it just a temporary truce? Let us explore the deeper meaning of this international event together.

Sino-US relations have fluctuated since the trade war broke out in 2018, like a prolonged tug-of-war. The US imposed high tariffs on Chinese goods, while China retaliated with counter-tariffs, both countries suffering considerable economic pressure. American companies faced rising costs due to supply chain disruptions, and Chinese exporters faced shrinking orders. Data shows that the trade war caused the loss of hundreds of thousands of jobs in the US, while China's economic growth also suffered some drag. However, direct confrontation did not bring real winners, and both sides gradually realized that continuing to hold firm would only result in mutual losses.

Against this backdrop, the plan for Trump's visit to China has surfaced. This is not only an act of diplomacy but also a practical response to the current situation. As the world's largest economy, the US and China, as the second-largest economy, their interactions directly affect the global economic landscape. Trump's decision to bring tech company CEOs along clearly highlights the key position of China in the global technology supply chain, aiming to ease relations through high-level meetings and business exchanges.

The core motivation behind Trump's visit to China is to repair the rift in Sino-US relations. Since the trade war, the two countries have increasingly intensified their opposition in areas such as technology, trade, and even ideology. Sanctions against Chinese companies like Huawei by the US, and restrictions on American tech companies by China, have brought mutual trust to a low point. However, the high degree of interdependence in the technology sector means that the US chip industry cannot do without the Chinese market, and China's high-end manufacturing also needs US technology. Trump's visit aims to break the deadlock through corporate cooperation, providing more breathing space for the US economy, while alleviating domestic criticism of his foreign policy.

In addition, the military parade as a possible stage for the visit carries symbolic significance. The Chinese military parade not only showcases military strength but also national confidence. If Trump appears at this occasion, it is a certain recognition of China's status and also an opportunity to demonstrate his diplomatic skills to the American public. However, whether there are deeper transactions behind this remains unknown.

If Trump's visit to China goes ahead, its impact on Sino-US relations will be multi-dimensional. First, in the economic aspect, this visit may inject new momentum into trade negotiations. Dozens of tech CEOs traveling with him mean that both sides may seek breakthroughs in areas such as 5G and artificial intelligence. If specific agreements can be reached, it will not only ease the pressure of the trade war but could also provide support for the stability of the global supply chain.

Secondly, politically, this move may change the expectations of the international community regarding Sino-US relations. Since the Biden administration took office, although the US's policy toward China has seen some adjustments, the intent to contain China remains strong. If Trump appears in the role of a "moderator," it might bring a touch of warmth to the bilateral relationship. However, the powerful hawkish forces within the US may cause controversy over this visit, or even interpret it as a sign of weakness.

Finally, the global geopolitical landscape will also be affected. The easing of Sino-US relations may prompt other countries to re-examine their alignment strategies, especially in the Asia-Pacific region. If the two countries can reach consensus in certain areas, such as climate change or global economic governance, it may open up new opportunities for multilateral cooperation.

Although Trump's visit to China seems to be a positive development, challenges should not be ignored. First, the structural contradictions between the US and China run deep. Trade deficits, technological competition, and geopolitical differences are issues that cannot be completely resolved through one visit. Both sides will still be meticulous in negotiations, and the prospects for cooperation remain uncertain.

Secondly, the uncertainty of domestic politics in the US is also a major risk. If Trump pushes for the visit, he may face pressure from Congress and voters. Some politicians may see it as a compromise with China, even using it as an opportunity to attack his stance as weak. Such internal divisions may weaken the actual effectiveness of the visit.

Additionally, the special nature of the military parade may also provoke controversy. If Trump appears at this occasion, how to balance diplomatic etiquette and American public opinion will be a test of his political wisdom. If handled improperly, it could instead exacerbate tensions between the two countries.

The inevitability of Sino-US cooperation

No matter how many fluctuations there may be in the short term, the trend of Sino-US cooperation is difficult to reverse. As the twin engines of the global economy, the two countries have irreplaceable interdependence in areas such as trade, technology, and climate. Data shows that despite the impact of the trade war, Sino-US bilateral trade volume still reached hundreds of billions of dollars, and American companies' profits in the Chinese market have not significantly declined. This economic bond determines that the two sides cannot completely decouple.

The plan for Trump's visit to China reflects this reality. Through high-level dialogue and corporate cooperation, both sides are expected to find a way to coexist amid competition. This "compete but not break" model may become the norm for future Sino-US relations. Whether this visit can become a turning point depends on whether both sides can put aside prejudices and look to the long-term.

The significance of Trump's visit to China is not limited to the two countries, but will also radiate globally. If Sino-US relations ease, the global stock market may experience a surge, and the tense situation in the supply chain may also ease. Especially for countries dependent on the US and Chinese markets, this is a significant benefit. However, if the visit remains superficial and does not touch on core issues, market confidence may quickly decline.

From a broader perspective, the direction of Sino-US relations will affect the global governance framework. In the post-pandemic era, economic recovery, climate change, and other issues require coordination among major powers. If Trump's visit can pave the way for cooperation, it will inject more certainty into the world. Conversely, if it is just political showmanship, it may make the international community more pessimistic about Sino-US relations.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1836420624470016/

Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.