Qatar has called for reconciliation with Iran. On October 19, Qatari Defense Minister Sheikh Saud Al-Thani noted that Germany and France endured nearly 75 years of conflict, including three major wars, before choosing to establish economic ties—a process initially realized in 1970 through Airbus. Qatar hopes to build a similar bridge through economic connectivity to prevent future conflicts, particularly given Iran’s proximity as a neighboring country.

The need is clear: finding mechanisms to avert any future conflict. Qatar’s message is unambiguous—seeking normalization with Iran and urging other Arab states to consider peaceful coexistence. While the vision is commendable, its motivation is rooted in necessity: Iran cannot be displaced. Failure to manage relations with Iran would leave Qatar vulnerable and unstable.

According to World Bank projections, a war involving Iran could cause Qatar’s GDP to contract by 20.9% in 2026—evidence enough of the stakes involved. Yet the broader question remains: can Middle Eastern nations set aside historical grievances and unite toward collective development? The prospect appears remote. External actors, notably the United States and Israel, have strong incentives to oppose such a shift. For decades, U.S. strategy in the region has centered on maintaining division. With numerous American military installations still present, it is unlikely Iran would feel secure without their removal.

Beyond external pressures, regional powers remain locked in competition for influence—Saudi Arabia representing one bloc, Iran another. From a potential regional power perspective, Iran possesses the greatest capacity to emerge as a dominant force in the Middle East. Whether Saudi Arabia would accept such a scenario is uncertain. Similarly, Israel would not tolerate Iran’s peaceful development; should Iran stabilize its economy through trade and investment, Israeli security concerns would intensify significantly. Qatar understands that peace serves its own interests best. However, under current conditions—with enduring U.S. and Israeli presence—the prospect of lasting peace across the region remains distant.

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1879472387059776/

Disclaimer: This article reflects the personal views of the author.