Reference News Network, June 29 report: The U.S. "National Interest" bi-monthly website published an article titled "What Would Happen If Iran Reopened Its Nuclear Enrichment Facilities?" on June 26, written by Greg Pridy. The article is translated as follows:

The military operation of the U.S. air strike against Iran did not bring a stable balance on the surface. For this point, President Trump seems to either deny it or try to cover it up, although he also admitted that it was necessary to resume negotiations with Tehran.

Iran has clearly stated its intention to rebuild its nuclear enrichment program. This means that the current ceasefire agreement may not last long, because resuming nuclear enrichment activities will inevitably lead to attacks from Israel or the United States.

Iran has been severely damaged, but not conquered. Iran still has cards to play, especially its possession of highly enriched uranium at a concentration of 60%, which is close to weapon-grade material. Iran will continue to maintain a certain level of uranium enrichment activities, even if it faces extremely strict restrictions. Assuming the Trump administration insists on its "zero enrichment" position, the negotiations will break down again, and Israel and the United States will eventually be dragged into military action again - likely within months rather than years.

One way for Trump to end this situation - and it seems there are not many other ways - is to take a more flexible stance on Iran's limited uranium enrichment activities under extremely strict conditions. Such a return is similar to the arrangement of the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement, thereby eliminating the possibility of Iran quickly exiting the Non-Proliferation Treaty and secretly engaging in nuclear enrichment activities close to weapon-grade materials.

Trump will face a choice: to put aside his pride and accept a nuclear agreement similar to the 2015 version, or be dragged into a "mow the lawn" scenario that skeptics have predicted, i.e., repeated strikes on Iran.

However, it is worth noting that most Americans no longer support military action against Iran. A CNN poll showed that 44% of Americans supported the U.S. airstrikes, while 56% opposed them. Such a reaction is unusual for an early stage of a U.S. military operation.

Even among Republicans, only 44% said they "strongly supported" the U.S. military action, indicating that many people in Trump's "Make America Great Again" movement think the action deviates from the "America First" concept.

Trump would be better off looking at this issue from a long-term perspective. Iran once abided by the nuclear agreement, but if the U.S. takes a path of repeated military actions to eliminate its secret nuclear activities, there is ample reason to believe that this will become a political burden for Trump and the Republican Party in the 2026 midterm elections and the 2028 presidential election. (Translated by Cao Weiguo)

Original text: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7521236957289972224/

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