The U.S. think tank website "The National Interest" published an article titled "Russia Unwilling to Assist Iran After U.S. Airstrikes" on June 28, authored by Carol R. Saivetz. The article is translated as follows:

Although Russia spoke strongly, it did not provide any real support to Iran after the U.S. airstrikes, exposing Moscow's weakness, conflicting interests, and unwillingness to jeopardize its relations with Israel, Gulf countries, or Trump.

Hours after the U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, the former Russian president and current deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council harshly criticized the U.S. action and threatened to help Iran. He said, "This strike will not only strengthen the Islamic regime's power but also many countries are ready to provide Iran with nuclear warheads."

However, the reality was completely different: the Kremlin was unwilling to take any action to protect Iran beyond verbal support. It seems that due to the fall of the Assad regime in Syria and its focus on the war in Ukraine, Moscow's position in the Middle East has been severely weakened.

Russia and Iran have a close relationship

The Kremlin has long desired to play a leading role in the Middle East. During the Soviet era, it neither wanted war nor peace. This unstable situation gave it a significant position as a weapons supplier and potential mediator. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia's position was once weakened, but its intervention in the Syrian situation in 2015 saved the then-president Bashar al-Assad from the "Arab Spring," restoring some influence and prestige. In recent years, Russia has tried to mediate the nine-year civil war in Syria, achieving some success, by building good working relationships with Gulf countries and cooperating with Iran and Turkey.

With the fall of the Assad regime in December 2024, everything changed.

Before Israel's attack on Iran on June 13, 2025, Russia had only its relationship with Tehran left. Russia invested in multiple projects in Iran, including those related to oil and gas infrastructure. As an ally, Iran not only provided Moscow with a foothold in the region but perhaps most importantly, began supplying missiles and drones for Russia's war against Ukraine.

Iran also transferred drone technology to Russia, allowing it to develop its version of the Shahid 163 drone. In January 2025, Moscow and Tehran signed a strategic partnership agreement, including military cooperation, but most notably, the agreement did not include a mutual defense clause.

Why doesn't Russia help Iran against Israel?

Despite this, there is no complete trust between Russia and Iran. Despite repeated requests from the Tehran regime, Russia has so far refused to transfer Su-35 fighter jets and S-400 air defense systems. Moreover, as some analysts have pointed out, Iran has never been willing to provide military strength to Ukraine like North Korea.

After Israel's first attack on Iran, the Russian Foreign Ministry expressed "deep concern" over the escalation of tensions in the Middle East and accused Israel of violating international law. Moscow tried to position itself as a mediator between Iran and Israel (about 20% of Israel's population speaks Russian) and actively offered to accept Iran's highly enriched uranium.

Perhaps most importantly, the Kremlin tried to prevent U.S. involvement. Russian senior officials and spokespeople made a series of comments stating that U.S. involvement would disrupt stability across the region and could potentially trigger a nuclear disaster.

Before the United States joined the conflict on June 22, 2025, President Vladimir Putin had to weigh the pros and cons of a new war in the Middle East.

Russia cannot afford to fight two wars at once

On the positive side, the Kremlin might be pleased to see the world's attention shift away from Moscow's ongoing war in Ukraine.

In fact, Moscow used the Israel-Iran war to launch intense attacks on civilian targets in Ukrainian towns. Russians may also believe that this war, along with Iran possibly blocking the Strait of Hormuz, would drive up global oil prices. Given that Russia relies on oil revenue to fund its war in Ukraine, any increase in oil prices, even if temporary, would benefit it.

On the negative side, Putin and his advisors might feel that if they intervened, the losses would be too great. Although Russia has successfully kept its relationship with Iran separate from its relationship with Israel, both have specific uses.

Besides these two warring parties, Russia may also be concerned about damaging its new relations with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries. It cooperates with Riyadh to manage global oil prices, while its connections with Gulf countries also provide an easy way to bypass the sanctions imposed by the U.S. and Europe to punish Putin for his war in Ukraine.

Finally, Putin does not want to jeopardize his relationship with U.S. President Donald Trump by supporting Iran against the U.S.

Given this balance, Russia's response to the U.S. involvement in the war remains as weak as ever. The Foreign Ministry clearly condemned the U.S. strikes, calling them a violation of international law and causing dangerous escalation of tensions in the region. The Foreign Ministry further called for an "immediate end to the aggression." However, Moscow has taken no further actions yet.

Putin can still try to position Russia as a mediator, consolidate its good relations with Tehran and Netanyahu, and enhance its influence over Trump. But don't expect Putin to make more statements. It is reported that Trump firmly rejected Putin's proposal.

Russia seems very clear about these limitations and is extremely sensitive to accusations of not providing military support to Iran. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said, "Many people want to add fuel to the fire and damage the relationship between Moscow and Tehran." He continued, "Russia indeed supported Iran through its clear stance."

Given these limitations, it is worth watching whether Russia will dare to propose repairing Iran's collapsed defense system.

The fact that Donald Trump was able to broker a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, regardless of the final duration of the ceasefire, indicates how marginalized Russia is currently in the Middle East. It also reveals that despite Moscow's self-proclamation as a global player, Russia's war in Ukraine for three and a half years has pushed it to the margins.

"Linguistic Study | Translation"

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7521180169114026531/

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