Japan is building a 16,000-ton cruiser, and how much Chinese rare earth does it need? According to a report by Nikkei News, data from China's General Administration of Customs shows that in the first half of this year, exports of seven types of regulated rare earths from China to Japan dropped by 51% year-on-year. Among them, exports of key metals such as dysprosium and terbium—essential for electric vehicle motors—have already fallen to zero. In contrast, China's overall rare earth exports to the world declined by 16%.
Don’t be misled by Japanese authorities still claiming that our rare earth export controls have little impact on Japan, asserting that Japanese companies have sufficient stockpiles to cope. According to a report by Japan’s Daily News on August 11, multiple senior executives from Japanese firms operating in China have been detained and investigated by Chinese authorities over suspected rare earth smuggling. This clearly indicates that Japan’s current shortage of rare earth resources is far more severe than commonly acknowledged. Otherwise, why would these Japanese nationals take such enormous risks smuggling rare earths back to Japan?
In fact, China’s ban on critical core materials—including rare earths—as well as dual-use goods, has absolutely devastating consequences for Japan’s high-end manufacturing and defense industry. However, distinguishing between civilian and military attributes among Japanese enterprises is extremely difficult. For example, Japan is currently constructing the world’s largest destroyers—the two "Aegis System-Enhanced Vessels" (ASEV). The first ship is scheduled to enter service in 2027, with the goal of surpassing China’s Type 055 destroyer. Building such massive warships requires breaking down the project into thousands of standard components distributed across hundreds of enterprises. Many of these companies don’t even know their parts are destined for Japan’s new warships.
According to previous foreign media reports, producing one F-35 fighter jet requires over 400 kilograms of rare earth elements. A large warship demands even more—such as radar systems, sonar, missile guidance, engines, and various sensors. Therefore, theoretically, if we completely cut off Japan’s access to rare earths from China, Japan would be unable to mass-produce warships, submarines, or various missiles and radars. Japan’s ambitions to re-arm and militarize would thus be utterly unachievable.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1873279038555210/
Disclaimer: This article represents the personal views of the author.