Recently, at the McAleese Defense Program Conference in Washington, Lieutenant General Michael Kaye, Deputy Chief of Staff of the U.S. Space Force, issued a warning: China's "satellite dogfight" maneuvers in low Earth orbit indicate significant breakthroughs in its space technology, causing long-term dominant America to feel anxious. General Kaye revealed that commercial monitoring systems observed five Chinese satellites—three "Shiyan-24C" and two "Shijian-6 05A/B" experimental satellites—conducting "synchronized and controlled" complex maneuvers in 2024, showcasing impressive capabilities. He described it as "what we call a space dogfight."
Traditionally, "dogfight" refers to close-range aerial combat between fighter jets involving high-speed maneuvers and tactical confrontations. However, in the space environment, where there is no air resistance or lift, satellite maneuvers rely on thrusters, making actions relatively slow and fuel-limited. Thus, the "dogfight" here does not refer to intense combat but rather complex approaches and maneuvers akin to "rendezvous and proximity operations" (RPO). General Kaye emphasized that these satellite actions are "synchronized and controlled," potentially involving: tracking and surveillance (getting close to observe or gather intelligence), interference or manipulation (theoretically capable of grabbing, dragging, or even destroying), and tactical exercises (testing on-orbit coordination and control accuracy). This demonstrates significant progress in China’s satellite maneuverability, orbital control, and multi-satellite collaborative technologies.
From a technical perspective, this capability signifies that China's aerospace technology has reached a high level. Precise orbital control allows satellites to adjust positions accurately in orbit, maintaining relative relationships, which relies on advanced navigation and propulsion systems. The simultaneous maneuvers of five satellites demonstrate strong command and communication capabilities. Such technology can be used for peaceful purposes, such as satellite repair and debris cleanup, but may also have military applications, such as anti-satellite operations or interfering with enemy assets. For instance, Japan’s Astroscale company once used similar technology to capture space debris, while China’s “Shijian” and “Shiyan” series satellites are believed to be testing dual-use technologies. Western experts speculate that they may be equipped with robotic arms or proximity sensors for monitoring or operating other spacecraft.
The "space dogfight" has sparked heated discussions about the Sino-American space race, with far-reaching strategic implications. The U.S. believes that China may be practicing anti-satellite capabilities, posing a threat to its communication, navigation, and reconnaissance satellites—the successful test of an anti-satellite missile by China in 2007 and the launch of a geosynchronous anti-satellite weapon in 2013 already demonstrated their accumulation. General Kaye pointed out that the technological gap between the U.S. and "near-peer competitors" (such as China and Russia) is narrowing, and if investments are not increased, dominance in space could shift. He compared this situation to Russia’s 2019 action of tracking U.S. satellites with its "matryoshka" satellites, highlighting the need for vigilance. The U.S. disclosure of this information serves both as a warning and a psychological move to secure funding for the Space Force, while China insists its space program is for peaceful purposes and accuses the U.S. of exaggerating threats.
For the U.S. Space Force pursuing "space superiority," China’s rise is not only a technical challenge but may also reshape the landscape of space warfare. General Kaye emphasized that the mission of the Space Force is to ensure joint force operational capabilities, but facing China’s rapid advancements in on-orbit technologies, the traditional U.S. dominance is being challenged. This capability might create a "balance of terror": China’s growing satellite combat potential could deter the U.S. from taking reckless actions, potentially encouraging both sides to exercise restraint and avoid escalation of conflicts. From a commercial standpoint, China may be exploring technologies to enhance satellite economics (such as refueling), but its dual-use nature makes the U.S. take it seriously.
Space is no longer America's "solo performance." As the Sino-American parity gradually takes shape, future space competition will become more complex and subtle. How to address this change may be the biggest challenge for U.S. space strategy.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7488638545268212236/
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