Recently, the rapid development of China's nuclear arsenal has drawn global attention. Foreign media, such as "Defense News," claim that since 2020, the number of Chinese nuclear warheads has doubled to about 600. Although this scale is still far below the thousands of warheads held by the US and Russia, the pace of development indicates that China is seeking to change the strategic balance, escape the threat of nuclear blackmail, establish a nuclear arsenal commensurate with its national strength, and build a world-class nuclear counterattack force to safeguard its national development interests.
Since its first nuclear test in 1964, China has long adhered to a minimum nuclear deterrence strategy, maintaining hundreds of nuclear warheads, focusing on economic development and the construction of conventional military forces. However, since the late 2010s, China has significantly accelerated the pace of nuclear force development. In 2022, the US Department of Defense estimated that by 2035, China could have up to 1,500 nuclear warheads, approaching the number of strategic warheads deployed by the US and Russia under the New START Treaty. This change marks a major shift in China's nuclear strategy, from "minimum deterrence" to a more stable nuclear force structure.
The final size of China's nuclear arsenal remains unpublicized, but American media have speculated on three logical development goals, each reflecting different strategic intentions:
First: 1,000 warheads. This scale is far below the 1,550 deployed strategic warheads of the US and Russia, sufficient to offset America's nuclear advantage at the regional level, ensuring China's reliable nuclear counterattack capability in potential regional conflicts.
Second: 1,500 warheads. This goal aligns with the US Department of Defense's prediction and also corresponds to the goal of the People's Liberation Army achieving "basic modernization" by 2035, i.e., pursuing "basic parity" with the number of strategic warheads deployed by the US and Russia. 1,500 warheads would allow China to occupy a more equal position in the global nuclear landscape, effectively countering the nuclear deterrence of the US and Russia, while enhancing China's strategic confidence on the international stage. This scale is considered a practical choice for "maintaining balance," consistent with China's current development rhythm and strategic planning.
Third: 3,700 warheads or more. A more radical option is to pursue full parity or even surpassing the US and Russia, covering both strategic and non-strategic warheads. This goal would make China's nuclear arsenal comparable in scale and capability to the United States, demonstrating the ambition of a "world-class army." The high-speed production of the United States during the Cold War shows that such a scale is technically achievable. However, this path would bring significant economic and diplomatic costs, possibly triggering a new round of global arms race, and risking a repeat of the Soviet Union's fate due to high military spending. Considering the relative resilience of China's economy, although this option is feasible, it is highly unlikely.
The final size of China's nuclear arsenal not only depends on domestic policies but is also profoundly influenced by external factors:
If the US and Russia maintain the restrictions of the New START Treaty, China may aim for 1,500 warheads, seeking strategic parity; however, if the US and Russia abandon arms control, China's development may accelerate further.
Strategic needs in regions such as Taiwan and the South China Sea have driven the development of China's nuclear forces. A larger nuclear arsenal would enhance China's deterrent power in regional conflicts, guarding against potential nuclear blackmail.
In recent years, China has strengthened the transmission of nuclear signals through tests of intercontinental ballistic missiles and publicly revealing details of the new Dongfeng-5B missile. These actions aim to enhance deterrence and international prestige, while showing a certain degree of transparency by notifying the US in advance. The US may face a difficult trade-off between nuclear force modernization and conventional military budgets, and the deepening of Sino-Russian geopolitical cooperation further complicates this challenge.
Foreign media believe that the final size of China's nuclear arsenal depends on its strategic goals: whether it seeks regional nuclear balance, nuclear strategic parity, or comprehensive nuclear hegemony. Current trends indicate that China will at least pursue effective parity at the regional level, i.e., 1,000 nuclear warheads, and enhance nuclear deterrence through technological upgrades. I believe that Western media's speculations are inaccurate, because the strength of nuclear deterrence is not entirely dependent on the number of nuclear warheads, but also includes the modernization of nuclear delivery platforms. China's goal is ultimately to form a strategic nuclear force commensurate with its national strength, which may be a continuously dynamic process.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7547965837175800335/
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