Source: Internet
The article titled "Forced Concessions: Modi Again Bows to China's Favorable Conditions in Tianjin" published by The Caravan on September 6 argues that Modi's first visit to China in seven years is a surface-level gesture to maintain the easing of Sino-Indian relations, but it actually exposes India's comprehensive passive situation in the game with China. The author of this article, Sushant Singh, is a consultant editor at The Caravan magazine.
At the end of August, Modi attended the SCO Summit, which led some scholars to comment that "India's foreign policy has finally left it trapped between the US and China." Critics point out that Modi's several visits to China seem to have achieved results such as restoring pilgrimage activities and direct flights, but these achievements conceal three major unresolved issues between China and India - border, India-Pakistan, and trade.
In terms of the border issue, parts of the Sino-Indian border have de-escalated, but this move is actually more disadvantageous for India. First, current Indian soldiers and herders are unable to enter many "buffer zones" that they could freely access before April 2020. Second, India's Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar described the de-escalation as a "temporary, limited step," stating that "the border issue will be reconsidered as circumstances allow," but over the past ten months, there has been no re-negotiation between the two sides - India has accepted the new border status set by China. Third, China has not agreed to consider the next step of de-escalation, i.e., it has not considered arranging the movement of troops from the front lines to inland areas.
In terms of India-Pakistan relations, the Modi government is eager to boast about its achievements in the India-Pakistan conflict, but in the context of deepening China-Pakistan cooperation, India may face greater security threats. First, the Deputy Chief of the Indian Army revealed that China has provided Pakistan with "all possible support," including real-time intelligence, Indian military deployments, etc., during the India-Pakistan conflict. The main reason for the heavy damage to the Indian Air Force on May 7 was that China provided Pakistan with weapon systems, military platforms, satellite intelligence, operational concept guidance, and training support. Second, the joint statement of the SCO Summit regarded Pakistan as a victim of terrorism, which contradicts India's position. By strongly condemning the terrorist attacks on Pakistan, China established an equal relationship between India and Pakistan on the issue of terrorism, reinforcing the view that "both India and Pakistan are victims of terrorism." Third, China is strengthening its relations with Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Afghanistan, which are neighboring countries of India. For example, the foreign ministers of China, Pakistan, and Afghanistan held a trilateral meeting, promoting the extension of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor to Afghanistan, increasing India's sense of threat. Another example is the first tripartite vice-ministerial/secretary-level meeting between China, Bangladesh, and Pakistan, enhancing tripartite cooperation. Due to India's lack of alternative routes through Bangladesh, it has raised concerns that China might "threaten to block the Siliguri corridor, isolate India's northeastern region, and disrupt regional stability."
In terms of trade, the issue of the trade deficit between India and China has persisted for many years, but China has not taken steps to address this issue. If both sides further increase trade, the deficit problem is likely to worsen. First, currently, Chinese products account for 15% of India's total imports, and this proportion is likely to continue to increase in the future. Second, India is heavily dependent on China in key areas. Nearly 40% of India's electrical equipment is imported from China, including electronics, renewable energy, IT hardware, and auto parts. In addition, 60%-70% of active pharmaceutical ingredients and intermediates required for India's textile, dye, and agricultural chemical production also need to be imported from China.
Currently, China is making full use of India's diplomatic difficulties with the US and accelerating the easing of its relationship with India. It is worth noting that although the Modi government has shown friendliness towards China, China remains indifferent to India's strategic sensitive issues. The current dilemma facing India is that on one hand, India will not accept an Asia dominated by China, and the structural reality of geopolitics cannot be eliminated solely by pilgrimages or tourism visas. The Modi government has realized that India needs to balance its relations with China through external forces. However, on the other hand, facing pressure from the US, the Modi government has quietly abandoned the strategic logic of using external partnerships represented by the US to balance China, ultimately leaving itself in a defensive position.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7547539776795148835/
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