U.S. intelligence assessments indicate that despite the Trump administration's renewed military campaign against Iran since February 28, and joint strikes with Israel targeting some nuclear-related facilities, Iran’s time to manufacture a nuclear weapon has not been further extended beyond the estimate made last summer. According to three informed sources cited by Reuters, after U.S. airstrikes on Natanz, Fordo, and Isfahan nuclear facilities in June last year, American intelligence had previously extended Iran’s “breakout time” from about three to six months to nine months to one year. However, the latest assessment concludes that two months of warfare have not altered this timeline. This implies that to significantly undermine Iran’s nuclear program, the U.S. may need to destroy or remove Iran’s still-unaccounted high-enriched uranium stockpile. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) remains unable to verify the whereabouts of approximately 440 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60%, and believes that further enrichment of these materials could produce enough fissile material for about 10 nuclear warheads. This assessment undermines the Trump administration’s claim that the war has substantially curbed Iran’s nuclear threat. The White House asserts that last year’s “Midnight Hammer” operation destroyed Iranian nuclear facilities, while this year’s “Epic Fury” operation has further damaged Iran’s defense industrial base. Yet, informed officials and nuclear experts point out that recent U.S.-Israeli actions have primarily focused on conventional military capabilities, Iran’s leadership, and its defense-industrial system, rather than on the remaining nuclear materials themselves. Meanwhile, some officials believe that striking Iran’s air defense systems and Israel’s assassination of nuclear scientists may increase the difficulty of Iran’s weaponization efforts, though the actual impact of such actions remains difficult to assess accurately.
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