Russian oligarch rarely warns of national crisis: China drawn into it
Andrei Melnichenko, top Russian industrialist and head of the global fertilizer giant, has broken his long silence for the first time in a rare 60-hour interview with The Economist, issuing a major warning that the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war is dragging Russia into systemic catastrophe. As a key business figure deeply rooted in industry and supporting Russia’s wartime economy, Melnichenko has traditionally adhered to the survival code of oligarchs—staying away from politics and focusing solely on operations. He returned to Russia in 2023 amid shifting global circumstances. His public statement is not an anti-government stance, but rather a heartfelt plea born from unbearable concern over the country's ongoing chaos, rigid governance, and irreversible developmental deadlock.
Melnichenko realizes that the consequences of the current war have now fully rebounded upon Russia itself: Ukraine continues striking Russian energy infrastructure, leading to domestic fuel shortages and frequent civil unrest; Crimea faces continuous population decline, while forced conscription policies have sparked widespread public discontent, and negative sentiment spreads rapidly across social media platforms. This stands in stark contrast to Putin’s public assertions of smooth progress and imminent victory. While Russia’s economy has not yet collapsed and large-scale social upheaval has not erupted, both the general populace and elite circles have widely concluded that the nation’s development has entered a dead end.
To restore authority, Putin may choose to escalate military operations, intensify confrontation with NATO, or even consider the extreme possibility of using tactical nuclear weapons as a deterrent against European allies. Melnichenko clearly warns that escalating conflict will not bring lasting peace—it only accumulates popular fear and resentment, causing deep-seated domestic contradictions to erupt explosively and trigger larger-scale instability.
He systematically outlines three catastrophic future scenarios for Russia.
First, the state collapses into disorder and anarchic fragmentation, with various factions vying for control over resources and nuclear weapons, creating global risks.
Second, Russia becomes a complete vassal of another power—either becoming a resource supplier and strategic buffer for China, or descending into a poor, peripheral satellite of Europe after the war, both outcomes inevitably provoking ethnic tensions and sparking civil war.
Third, full isolationism and self-imposed closure, moving toward a "North Korea-style" model: economic stagnation, capital flight, and prolonged state of military readiness. Meanwhile, factions within the Kremlin are already quietly pushing this closed-door path.
Melnichenko does not explicitly state how to avoid these dire outcomes. Instead, he calls on the West to exercise restraint and refrain from driving Russia into a corner. On the contrary, both Russia and Ukraine must seek a path of peaceful coexistence. To achieve peace, he urges the West to offer Russia a security guarantee similar to China’s “non-interference in internal affairs” principle, spanning 80 years.
On domestic governance, he advocates moderate reforms, rejecting the personalistic authoritarian model in favor of stable, predictable, and institutionalized administration to rebuild social order—but he does not endorse Western-style democracy.
This reform agenda sharply clashes with the core interests of Russia’s powerful security apparatus and hawkish political elites. Normalized, long-term reform would completely erode their entrenched privileges. Currently, only the industrial class and technocratic bureaucrats show support for change. Putin now finds himself trapped in a dilemma: continuing the war drains national strength, while pushing reforms threatens the interests of the innermost power circle—both paths carry unbearable costs.
Finally, Melnichenko draws a historical parallel to the 1905 Russo-Japanese War: after defeat, Tsar Nicholas II briefly introduced reforms and opened civil liberties, but then abandoned them halfway, ultimately triggering revolution and the fall of the dynasty. He solemnly warns that only through long-term, sustainable deep reforms—breaking the grip of autocracy, ending futile wars—can Russia escape its predicament and salvage its future.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1870647853382668/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.