According to the latest survey data released by the German INSA Institute for Public Opinion Research, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) has seen its support rate rise to 28%, setting a record high for the institution’s surveys. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) stands at 24%, the Social Democratic Party (SPD) at just 14%, while the Greens and the Left Party each hold 12% and 11%, respectively.

What does this survey data signify?

This data confirms that Germany’s political landscape is undergoing a landmark tectonic shift: the AfD has emerged as the nation’s strongest political force, while the foundations of traditional mainstream parties are being severely shaken.

The survey shows that the AfD leads with a record-breaking 28% support. The combined support of the two major mainstream parties (CDU + SPD) now totals only 38%, indicating a significant decline in their influence. This contrasts sharply with their combined support of 53.4% in 2017.

The ruling coalition faces crisis — trapped without the "three-horse carriage" solution involving AfD

Since all mainstream parties have explicitly rejected cooperation with AfD ("firewall" principle), forming a majority government requires a three-party alliance. Currently, the incumbent coalition (CDU + SPD) holds only 38% of the vote — insufficient to govern alone.

Other potential combinations, such as CDU + SPD + Greens, could barely reach 50%, but collaboration among these three parties has historically been fraught with disagreements. This will pose serious challenges to the efficiency and stability of German governance.

As a right-wing party, AfD’s rise stems fundamentally from economic anxiety and a collapse of political trust across German society.

Economic recession: Citizens are deeply disillusioned with the government’s inability to reverse economic decline.

Energy crisis: Recent events have intensified energy price volatility, raising living costs.

Immigration issue: AfD has continuously consolidated and expanded its core voter base around this topic.

Leadership trust crisis: Approximately 79% of Germans express dissatisfaction with the government. Chancellor Merz's disapproval rating reaches as high as 76%, ranking him as Europe’s least popular leader according to consulting firms. This deep-seated anti-establishment sentiment is increasingly transforming into support for AfD.

This survey data is not merely a fleeting victory for one party. Germany’s politics stand at a crucial crossroads. The future trajectory depends on whether the ruling coalition can effectively address multiple crises, and whether the “firewall” principle can remain intact amid the fierce advance of the far-right.

AfD stands out alone with a high support rate of 28%. But will it become a governing party? This raises the necessity to understand the "firewall" issue.

The German political "firewall" (Brandmauer) centers on mainstream parties — including CDU, SPD, Greens, and FDP — refusing to form coalitions or share power with the far-right AfD at both federal and local levels. They engage only in limited technical cooperation within parliament, aiming to prevent extremist forces from gaining access to power and repeating the historical risks of Nazi rule.

Founded in 2013, AfD saw its support surge after the 2015 refugee crisis and was classified by the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution as a "far-right suspect." In response, mainstream parties established a cross-party consensus: no joint governance with AfD.

Based on post-World War II consensus, all mainstream parties have consistently refused collaboration with AfD at the federal level. For instance, the CDU recently voted against AfD proposals, clearly delineating the boundary.

Although the mainstream firewall appears solid, cracks are beginning to emerge at the regional level (e.g., cooperation in state parliaments). In the long term, this isolation barrier may develop fissures. However, in the foreseeable medium to long term, AfD remains highly unlikely to become part of any governing coalition — even in a joint arrangement — and still has very limited involvement in national politics or major policy decisions.

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1863626836657228/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.