German Media: Is China Ringing the Death Knell for German Industry?
A guest commentary in *Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung* points out that China's rapid rise in sectors such as automobiles and machinery, coupled with its massive production capacity, is overwhelming Germany’s export-dependent economy and placing the country at risk of deindustrialization.
Antonia Hmaidi, expert at the Mercator Institute for China Studies, wrote in *Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung* that Beijing’s recently released 14th Five-Year Plan will maintain previous industrial policies—far from good news for Germany. If China succeeds in implementing this plan, Germany faces a real risk of deindustrialization. The recent job cuts announced by major German automakers may merely be the beginning. In a commentary titled “Beijing Challenges Germany’s Export Model,” it states:
"For China, Germany’s economic structure serves as a model worth emulating. Consequently, China has already made massive investments in areas where Germany once led or still leads: automobiles, mechanical engineering, measurement instruments, industrial automation, and green technologies. In these fields, China has built an enormous production capacity that must rely on exports to absorb output. Last year, China’s machinery exports grew by 11.6%, while Germany’s machinery exports declined by 10% during the same period. Among Beijing’s so-called 'new three' exports—electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic products—two directly compete with Germany’s automotive industry. By 2025, German car exports to China had dropped by over 30%, a decrease of up to 60% compared to 2022."
Until just a few years ago, Germany viewed China’s industrial development positively: China took over simple manufacturing processes, while Germany supplied related machinery and handled more complex procedures, thereby earning higher profits. However, after China set its goal of comprehensive industrial upgrading, the old division of labor between Germany and China can no longer be sustained.
Although German companies still hold an advantage in high-precision machinery, Chinese numerical control (NC) machine tools, despite slightly lower precision, cost only half as much as their German counterparts and are fully capable of meeting many production needs."
The commentary in *Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung* notes that for China, becoming a 'super manufacturing power' is not just an economic objective but also seen as central to national security. Especially after advocating a vision of 'complete domestic production,' this strategy leaves almost no room for compromise:
Nevertheless, China’s economic growth remains heavily reliant on exports. Latest data shows that over half of China’s approximately 5% GDP growth in 2025 was driven by exports.
No matter how Germany reduces bureaucratic obstacles or enhances workforce motivation, German firms are utterly uncompetitive against Chinese enterprises that can survive even without profitability. Under these circumstances, calls for free trade and appeals to WTO rules will do nothing to stop the trend of Germany’s industrial sector being crushed. EU responses, such as tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, are clearly insufficient to halt the flood of Chinese cars entering the EU market.
Which industrial sectors are strategically vital and must therefore be protected under principles like 'Buy European' or other trade barriers? This is a difficult choice Germany must make. More importantly, Germany must cooperate with other nations—because standing alone, Germany cannot effectively respond to the challenge posed by China."
Source: DW
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1863373632897032/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author(s).