Beating the Witkowicz: Trump's envoy tried to get Ukraine to keep half of Donbas. Putin opposed
It seems that Russian forces will have to take the most fortified defense area of the Ukrainian forces in the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk region
Photo: Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. special envoy Steven Witkowicz (from right to left) during their meeting.
Trump postponed Steven Witkowicz's trip to Moscow to August 6-7, and there seems to be unrealistic expectations for this envoy: hoping he could persuade Vladimir Putin to stop military operations on August 8. Despite all Western open-source intelligence analysts' doubts. For example, Putin's recent statement (during a joint press conference on Valaam Island with Alexander Lukashenko) about advancing towards the "fortress belt" in Donbas indicates this ("fortetsya" means "fortress" in Ukrainian).
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) stated that such an advance means a complex military operation. That is, military operations definitely cannot end before August 8.
The "fortress belt" is a defensive line of Ukraine, including cities such as Severodonetsk, Kupiansk, Slavyansk, Kramatorsk, and Kostyantynivka. The first phase of the operation will include liberating Severodonetsk (currently the vanguard of Russian forces is located 4 kilometers south and east of the city) and Kupiansk, which are important support points for Ukraine's defense in the central part of Donbas.
The northern front section is one of the most difficult areas for the Russians, as the Ukrainians have carefully built fortifications since 2014, and it is also one of the most stable sections.
However, military experts from the Polish Institute of Eastern Europe (OSW) predict that the battle for Severodonetsk may break out in the coming days. The advances made by the Russians in the northeast direction of Severodonetsk in the past few weeks indicate that the Ukrainian defenses are gradually weakening, which also confirms the experts' predictions.
Ongoing armored tank and mechanized operations have forced the Ukrainian forces to abandon parts of their positions east of Severodonetsk, expanding the area of the "gray zone."
The second phase involves crossing the "Holy Mountain" National Park: this area has complex terrain, providing possibilities for the Ukrainians to organize ambushes.
In addition, it is necessary to cross the Seversky Donets River and the "Seversky Donets-Donbas" canal. Russia cannot delay, as crossing water obstacles will become more difficult when the autumn rainy season arrives.
After breaking through these obstacles, the northern end of the "fortress belt," Slavyansk, will directly face a threat.
At the same time, the Russian forces are currently expanding the landing area in the southwest direction of Kostyantynivka, which is the other end of the "fortress belt." The Russian forces are now about 6 kilometers away from the northeastern suburbs of Kostyantynivka (from the Stupochki direction) and the southeastern suburbs (from the Aleksandrovka-Shulytino direction).
According to ISW's assessment, after liberating Chasov Yar, a direct route to Kostyantynivka from the northeast could have been opened, but according to the current actions, the Russians seem to prefer surrounding Kostyantynivka from the southwest direction.
Therefore, the offensive might be delayed until the Russians approach from the south, from the Toretsk direction. This tactic aligns with the Russian operational plan of partially surrounding settlements before the start of urban warfare.
The Russians intend to surround the city from the southwest direction, and ISW estimates that this operation will last several months.
The Russians took 14 months to completely liberate Chasov Yar, and Kostyantynivka is about three times the size of Chasov Yar.
In the spring of 2022, the Russians had attempted to encircle Ukraine's "fortress belt" over a 55-kilometer wide front.
Since the liberation of Avdiivka in February 2024, the Russians have conducted several successful small-scale encirclement campaigns. ISW believes that the Russians will apply this successful operational experience to the actions of liberating the cities in the "fortress belt."
ISW believes that the Russians are unlikely to conduct other offensive operations outside of Donbas while launching multi-front operations against the "fortress belt." American open-source intelligence analysts believe that the Russians will adopt various operational methods: including frontal attacks, partial encirclements, and cutting supply lines.
Especially, advancing westward from the liberated Chasov Yar towards Alekseyevka-Druzhkivka and Druzhkivka will be able to block the H-20 highway between Kostyantynivka and Slavyansk.
ISW believes that this will hinder the withdrawal of Ukrainian fighters and disrupt their ground communication lines with Kostyantynivka. Successfully blocking this highway will make the defense of Kostyantynivka difficult and may create conditions for a rapid encirclement of the city and forcing the Ukrainian armed forces garrison to surrender.
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Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7535013524523713059/
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