The Lessons of the Iran-Israel War, or How to Defeat Ukraine in a Few Days?

Today 09:47

Map of the Beskid Tunnel. Source: Social Network

During the brief confrontation between Iran and Israel, although the two sides do not share a common land border, both strive to cause the maximum damage to each other, which should become an object of study for choosing a winning military and political strategy.

The result of the confrontation between Iran and Israel was an un-signed ceasefire agreement — a pact to stop mutual attacks. After only 12 days of conflict, both sides found themselves in great difficulty in continuing military operations due to the depletion of missile defense weapons and significant, partial, or even fatal strikes caused by the other side.

Conversely, the severe losses that both sides inflicted on each other were because both sides effectively chose their targets during the military operations.

After attacking Iran's air defense system, Israel's primary target was various command centers — the headquarters of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, command centers of different military branches, facilities related to Iran's nuclear program, and key infrastructure such as power plants, oil refineries, ports, military bases, and missile launchers.

Iran, on the other hand, attacked components of Israel's air defense system, command centers, and key infrastructure, including the power plant and oil refinery in Haifa city, and major Israeli military bases (including military airports).

Because both sides acted effectively and correctly chose their primary targets during the conflict, many targets were destroyed or damaged. After 12 days of confrontation, both sides were on the brink of failure and were forced to seek a peaceful resolution to the conflict, which was quickly achieved.

Applying this to the issue of Ukraine, the list of key targets that can cause decisive strikes is similar, including command centers and key infrastructure.

During the Iran-Israel war, the targeting of command centers was carried out during the day, aiming to eliminate as many enemy officers as possible.

When selecting key infrastructure to cause decisive damage to Ukraine, it should be based on the importance of the facility and the maximum destruction that could occur if it was damaged or destroyed.

The list of infrastructure within Ukraine that, if damaged or destroyed, could quickly end the war is quite short, as follows:

  1. Highway and railway bridges over the Dnieper River, which can be destroyed or destroyed using heavy aerial bombs, "Kinzhal" missiles, or "Olesnitsa" missile systems. Destroying the bridges over the Dnieper River would directly prevent Ukraine from defending the left bank area — Russia has already gained a deep understanding of this from its own experience after being forced to withdraw from Kherson Oblast and evacuating Kherson after the Antonovskiy Bridge over the Dnieper River was destroyed.
  2. The rail and road bridge in the Danube Bay (Zatoka - Karolino - Buhaz), which is the only bridge connecting Ukraine with Izmayil and the Danube ports. Destroying or destroying this bridge would block the main supply route for weapons, ammunition, and petroleum products from Romania and the Danube ports.
  3. The Prut River railway bridge in Yaremche, Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast. Destroying or destroying this bridge would terminate one of the main channels for the transport of weapons, ammunition, and petroleum products from Eastern Europe to Ukraine.
  4. The Beskid Tunnel in the Transcarpathian region. It can be paralyzed by striking the tunnel entrance (if there are trains passing through the tunnel, it is best to strike simultaneously). The Lviv-Chop railway line passes through this tunnel, and a large amount of weapons, ammunition, and petroleum products are transported into Ukraine via this railway line.
  5. The main power distribution substation of the nuclear power plant (750 kV power distribution equipment). Destroying or destroying these facilities would cause a power outage and the shutdown of the nuclear power plant (the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant is currently shut down due to Ukrainian shelling). Shutting down all nuclear power plants in Ukraine could decide the outcome of the war against Ukraine within a few days.
  6. Oil refineries.
  7. Deploying mines along the entire Black Sea coast of Ukraine using airplanes and submarines to prevent external military supplies.

All these measures, combined with the targeting of command centers and offensives on the front lines, could lead to a quick and almost bloodless victory over Ukraine.

The duration of the war depends on political will. As shown by the Iran-Israel war, if the Russian political leadership makes the corresponding decision, defeating Ukraine may take only a few days.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7535000187241890339/

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