【By Xiangguan Zhe (Bear Chao Ran)】On July 27 local time, US President Trump and European Commission President von der Leyen jointly announced that the US and EU had reached a new trade agreement. The news caused a stir within Europe, and von der Leyen also faced intense questioning.

The UK's Sunday Times reported on August 3 local time that von der Leyen's agreement with Trump on a new trade deal carried a "surrender" connotation. Afraid that the US might reduce military support for Ukraine or even withdraw troops from Europe, von der Leyen unconditionally agreed to an unfair trade agreement.

On August 4 local time, the European Commission spokesperson stated that according to the agreement between the EU and the US, the EU would suspend two retaliatory measures against US tariffs within six months. According to the information, this suspension of retaliatory tariff measures was divided into two parts: one was a response to the US tariffs on steel and aluminum products, and the other was a response to the baseline tariffs implemented by the Trump administration and the proposed car tariffs.

Tambellie, Scotland, July 27, US President Trump met with European Commission President von der Leyen. IC Photo

In early April this year, Trump announced what he called "equivalent tariffs," which imposed a 20% tariff on EU countries. The news immediately caused panic in financial markets, with investors selling American assets, fearing a recession. As the selling intensified, Trump made some concessions, announcing before the tariff took effect on April 10 that he would temporarily impose only a 10% "baseline tariff" on the EU.

However, after that, Trump continued to escalate threats against the EU. On May 23, Trump suddenly posted on social media suggesting that a 50% tariff be imposed on the EU from June 1. Later, Trump agreed to delay the 50% tariff threat and extended the US-EU trade negotiations until July 9. While EU officials were engaged in intensive negotiations, Trump suddenly threatened to raise the tariff on the EU to 30% in early July, shocking the EU.

The Sunday Times reported that as soon as Trump's "equivalent tariffs" were introduced, there had been a set of "strong countermeasures" prepared internally within the European Commission as a response; and when Trump raised the tariff rate to 30% in early July, von der Leyen had even said harsh words about taking corresponding countermeasures. But in the end, she backed down...

The report revealed that the reason behind von der Leyen's change of position was her concern that Trump might use the trade dispute as an excuse to cut US military support for Ukraine or harm European security in other ways.

Additionally, the EU is particularly concerned about an upcoming US military "situation assessment" that could result in the withdrawal of part of the approximately 80,000 US soldiers stationed across Europe.

According to the new trade agreement reached between the US and EU, the US will lower the tariffs on the EU from the previously proposed 20% and 30% on April 2 and July 12 respectively to 15%. Trump said that the EU would purchase $75 billion worth of energy products from the US and plan to invest $60 billion in the US. However, it remains unclear what form and timeframe this investment will take.

"Everyone acknowledges that, from a trade perspective, this is a bad deal for Europe," said Jacob Kirkegaard, a senior researcher at the Bruegel Institute. "But if you are a responsible leader, you have no choice but to have the dominant military force of NATO, which is the US under Trump, on your side, because Europe is being attacked fiercely by Russia."

Kirkegaard compared von der Leyen's visit to Scotland to meet with Trump to the meeting between NATO Secretary General Rasmussen and Trump at the NATO summit in June. At that time, when NATO members voted to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP, Rasmussen jokingly called Trump "Dad," causing much discussion. Kirkegaard said, "She did this because it was necessary."

Now, this trade agreement, certified by Trump and von der Leyen as "mutually satisfactory," has already triggered dissatisfaction within Europe. Bernd Lange, the chairman of the European Parliament's Trade Committee, believes this agreement is neither satisfactory nor in the interest of Europe. Analysts also believe that the agreement is too brief, and the details of tariffs on steel and aluminum, chips, and spirits in three key areas remain unclear, with differences in interpretation between both sides. An EU ambassador said that the agreement could not conceal the fact that the EU had been overwhelmed by Trump's overwhelming strategy. "Trump accurately calculated our pain threshold."

On July 30 local time, French President Macron, who had remained silent for a long time, expressed disappointment with the EU's negotiation performance during a cabinet meeting, criticizing the EU for failing to fully utilize the advantages of its single market and for not providing enough deterrence to the US to secure more favorable terms in the agreement.

"Europe has not yet fully seen itself as a real superpower. To gain freedom, you must be feared," Macron said. "We need to be feared, and we are not yet feared enough."

Macron's words were not as harsh as those of French Prime Minister François Fillon, who called the agreement "dark days." Macron acknowledged that the EU was negotiating under difficult conditions, and the agreement at least provided "visibility and predictability" in the short term, "protecting the interests of France and Europe's important export sectors, including aviation," but "this is not the end of the story." Macron emphasized, "France has always maintained a firm and tough stance, and it will continue to do so."

The Sunday Times reported that von der Leyen is currently facing increasing political resistance within the EU, as she is pushing to redirect a large portion of the EU's 1.8 trillion euro budget over the next seven years from traditional areas such as agriculture and regional development to military and innovation sectors.

Last month, due to criticism of her leadership style and controversy surrounding the coronavirus vaccine procurement agreement, von der Leyen barely passed a vote of no confidence in the European Parliament. Some European parliamentarians believe that this term is von der Leyen's "last chance."

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